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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 10, 2014 2:47:25 GMT
But clumsy European manoeuvring has been a major contributor to the situation reaching this point, I would contend... It's easy to say that, but what, pray tell, do you think 'Europe' should have done instead? In a nutshell, not lead Ukraine up the garden path about possible future EU membership and also trying to lead the country out of Russia's orbit. The reality is that Russia has all the levers in this situation and the West have virtually none. Ukraine only exists as a viable political entity if it receives cheaper, discount gas from Russia and doesn't have to pay its debts on time. Already they are in debt for the last discount offered by Russia. Add in the demographics, Putin's Greater Russia regional hegemonic inclinations and the West's impotence in the situation and you have a recipe for confrontation if Russia are not a party to the deal. Which is what happened to the last EU package put together with Yanukovich and the opposition which was dependent on rejecting the Russo-dimension. The reality is that France, the UK and Britain have vast amounts of Russian collateral in their banks and economies and know full well that huge amounts of that money was either illegally appropriated or just stolen outright from the 'plain people of Russia' when the state's assets were privatised in the 90s. If principle was the deciding factor, then these people and their money would be booted out in the morning and told what to do with their ill-gotten gains. However, no such sanction will be even contemplated (the Brits even allowed Alexander Litvenenko to be poisoned in London by the Russian state with minimal consequences). Unfortunately, the West has learned nothing from the situation in Georgia, 6 years ago. This cartoon probably sums up what I mean far better than my ramblings above... /photo/1
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Post by patricklondon on Mar 13, 2014 8:09:59 GMT
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 14, 2014 2:05:38 GMT
Sorry Patrick, I take your point as I didn't intend to assert that Britain 'allowed' Litvinenko to be poisoned but what I mean is that there were minimal consequences in the aftermath. I did read Marina Litvineko's book and it was clear that the establishments in London and Washington were bent on good relations with Russia to the exclusion of everything else, despite her late husband's attempts to highlight the true nature of the regime. UK's ex-ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, ran into the same attitude when he tried to bring attention to what was happening out there as all concerns had to be subjugated to the so-called 'War on Terror'... Unfortunately that link you posted doesn't work or is defunct...
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Post by patricklondon on Mar 14, 2014 7:48:27 GMT
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Post by fumobici on Mar 16, 2014 15:16:57 GMT
www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141020/alexander-j-motyl/is-losing-crimea-a-lossInteresting analysis of the potential Russian economic downsides of Russian annexations in Ukraine. One suspects Putin et al really haven't thought this through very well and are driven more by fanatical nationalism (or appealing to such) than cold rational analysis. Russia gets a quick feel good victory, quickly followed by a whole raft of apparently unanticipated disastrous economic consequences. Not to mention the incalculable political costs arising from international opprobrium likely to result from a nakedly illegal annexation of parts of a sovereign state. Isn't it likely that cooler, more rational heads within Russia will be looking at this and thinking Putin has badly misjudged here? This could very easily be the beginning of the end for Putin's political career once the reality of the likely political and economic costs of what's likely to follow settles in.
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Post by bjd on Mar 16, 2014 19:19:00 GMT
I read just the other day that Putin is also using this as a lesson to those wealthy Russians who have assets abroad. They had been told to repatriate their money, so any losses abroad would just show them that they should have been placing their money in Russia, not in, for example, London real estate and Swiss bank accounts.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 20:05:42 GMT
Well, Putin has already said that the cancellation of the G8 conference is really not important, so now the next phase is really going to be almost exclusively economic. If Russia begins to suffer from the turn of events, or if the "new" Ukraine begins to prosper (unfortunately not very likely), public opinion in the area will obviously shift. Clearly, the most interesting point over the next year is going to be whether the people of Crimea feel that they are better off as part of Russia or not.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 23:03:10 GMT
No surprise here: Crimeans vote overwhelmingly to join RussiaFrankly, if you consider certain aspects, there is no way that it could have gone any other way: Ukraine is an extremely poor country. Russia is a relatively rich country. Which do you choose when you want a better future for your family? Abstract ideas like "democracy," "freedom," or "equality" go out the window when you are looking out for #1. As to whether a lot of people might change their mind quickly or not, that is completely open to speculation. I am already thinking of other places. After the split of Czechoslovakia and Sudan, and now this " split + fusion," one is free to wonder if such things will have any influence on the upcoming referendum in Scotland or perhaps the future of Belgium.
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Post by fumobici on Mar 17, 2014 0:17:41 GMT
I am already thinking of other places. After the split of Czechoslovakia and Sudan, and now this " split + fusion," one is free to wonder if such things will have any influence on the upcoming referendum in Scotland or perhaps the future of Belgium. www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/quebecs-fantasy-is-canadas-nightmare/article17485722/And meanwhile in Canada, another Québec independence referendum is nucleating around one Pierre Karl Péladeau aka PKP. For most Canadians this will I presume be met with a weary shrug and a "shit or get off the pot then". I think the whole thing is driven more by the rather shocking wealth disparities between Anglophone and Francophone Québecers than anything. If those didn't exist, the cultural stuff could somehow be papered over and more or less ignored.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 17, 2014 4:47:09 GMT
Thanks, Patrick, that's an excellent article that more or less sums up my own take on the current situation in Ukraine. I'm afraid I have to respectfully disagree completely with Fumobici's comment, though. Putin and his cabinet will have thought this through very carefully as the crisis in Ukraine developed over the last few months. We may not like what he has done but he's the only one that has prepared and moved decisively while the EU and Nato have just been reacting to developments and his initiatives - and not very convincingly, so far. The Foreign Affairs article quoted is weak and partial analysis and there won't be any 'disastrous' political consequences. And if there are to be 'incalculable' economic costs, it's because they will be so insignificant to Russia, that they barely register there. This current 'misjudgement' of Putin's is no different than his Georgian 'misjudgement' of 2008 and the aftermath will be not too dissimilar. One minute John McCain was declaring 'we're all Georgians now'; then less than one year later, The West is bending over backwards to resume 'business as usual' with Russia...or 're-set' as the policy became known. Bjd, don't forget that Russia (somewhat surprisingly, perhaps) has 'fully open capital account' which they could easily adjust any time they want, so the power to retain Russian capital within the country is theirs, if they really desire to do that... Kerouac, I wouldn't underestimate the atavistic nature of Russian nationalism. The Russian people know in their hearts that they are a relatively poor people by European and Western standards. If you were by some magic wand to dangle our standard of living income at the population of Crimea in exchange for their voting intentions, the percentages wouldn't change that much. As I write, it's after 4am here, and, as of today, Crimea will no longer be part of Ukraine as we have known it for the last 23 years. Very hard to predict what will happen next. A plethora of 'experts' are wheeled out hourly on radio, TV, internet and press,and no two of them can foresee the constitutional future of this part of the world. It's worth noting that despite similar plebiscites in South Ossetia and TransNiestra that also voted for Russian integration, no such annexation has taken place so it's possible that Crimea will be another of these 'frozen' regions, separated from their original or constituent countries and inclined to Moscow. I do think it unlikely that Russia will then try to constitutionally restructure the other so-called "Russian" parts of eastern Ukraine but a lot also rides on how the 'de-Ukrainisation' of Crimea proceeds. As of today, all eyes will be on what is to become of the Ukrainian forces in the peninsula. Do they dump arms, abandon their garrisons and march back to the 'mainland', or sit still and await orders from Kyiv. Or will the decision be left to their commanding officer, Capt Yuri Mamchur, who, so far, has shown himself to be a brave and honourable soldier and a leader of men who has dealt with an extremely difficult and complex situation with commendable skill, patience and courage. Given the vulnerability of their circumstances, my thoughts tonight are with himself, his colleagues and their families...
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Post by bjd on Mar 17, 2014 7:35:59 GMT
Yes, while waiting and seeing what develops next...
I was struck during the recent reports on why people of Russian background in Crimea would vote for integration into Russia, that many of those interviewed were reported as having rosy memories of the Soviet Union. Many were old too -- so I can only assume that they have remembered life as it was -- no freedom and a lousy economic system, but one that "took care" of everyone by guaranteed employment and health care. No huge and visible economic inequalities.
They don't seem to realize that they will not turn back the clock to a pre-1990 system.
On France 24 last night, there was an interview with a young guy saying why Crimea should join Russia -- totally brainwashed about the "fascists in Kiev", his grandfathers who had died for the USSR in WW2, etc. Maybe he sounded a bit stilted because he was speaking English, but it also sounded as though he was trying to remember all the points he was supposed to make.
Today's paper also mentions that Crimea is dependent on the hinterland for water, energy, etc, so it will be interesting to see how the Russians cope with that. Will they just leave Crimea as an "autonomous region", re-integrate it into the Soviet Union (oh sorry, I mean Russia)...?
I feel sorry for the Tatar population -- the original inhabitants of the peninsula. Deported by Stalin in 1944, now being forced back into the hands of Russia, even though they boycotted the referendum.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 18, 2014 1:56:39 GMT
Hi Bjd, it has to be remembered that Putin has delivered Russia to a far more prosperous and advantageous place than it was under the latter stages of Communism and the chaos of the 90s. Nowadays, Russian people don't have to queue for necessities, can obtain more or less any goods they need and get their wages and pensions paid on time, as opposed to the last decades of Soviet rule when these elementary things that we take for granted were all a struggle. So it's not that people are harking back to a rose-tinted past but just recognising present day realities for that part of the world. Which explains the desire for 'stability' that permeates the eastern Slavic culture and makes characters like the current Russian regime so popular at home but remains baffling for us on the outside who only see kleptocracy and corruption. The Russian people aren't stupid and know this themselves but also tolerate it, as opposed to taking a chance on a more open and democratic system that will collapse into chaos in their circumstances, as they see it.
It's not surprising that they see fascists in Kyiv as there are extreme right-wing elements in that new, unelected government which tried to downgrade the Russian language on their first day in office and immediately started changing the governors of regional oblasts, replacing them with apparatchiks and oligarchs aligned with the new regime. So it's not brain-washing or paranoia. And let's not forget that all our international institutions like NATO, the EU and UN (whose 5 permanent members are the WW2 'winners') are predicated on the aftermath of WW2 so it's entirely reasonable for them to have their perspectives also formed from that appalling conflagration.
It won't be difficult for Russia to 'integrate' Crimea into the 'mainland' as they see it as they are almost contiguous at Kerch and the economic price won't be a consideration for them - this is a country that has just spent over 30billion for a one-off sporting event so the kind of analysis we've been subjected to in our media about Russian miscalculations, etc, is just junk journalism and that completely misjudges the mind-set of the Kremlin. It's the West that is wrong-footed and will either funk taking any meaningful sanctions or implement the bare minimum and withdraw some token visas, etc.
But I agree with you totally about the Tartar population who will be very anxious about the changes taking place. Under Ukrainian jurisdiction, they have led a relatively free and unrestricted lifestyle. But let's also not forget that Crimea has been autonomous since 1992 and they have been fairly treated by the local Russian administration. It will also be a test of Putin's ability to oversee this part of the world in pluralistic way. I suspect he knows this and will make every effort to see that 'fairplay' obtains, but time will tell. I hope for the sake of the Tartar people, who have historically suffered so much, that it does...
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Post by fumobici on Mar 18, 2014 3:59:26 GMT
Nice to have another viewpoint whj. The more we read, the better we see.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 18, 2014 4:50:00 GMT
Nice to have another viewpoint whj. The more we read, the better we see. Very true, Fumo. None of us have a monopoly of wisdom in this kind of situation. Let's just hope that escalation and total carnage are avoided...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2014 20:56:35 GMT
I am not feeling good about current events.
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Post by bjd on Apr 14, 2014 7:14:51 GMT
I agree. In today's paper, there is an article about the action in eastern Ukraine being accompanied by a general crackdown in Russia on a fifth column made up of people like Alexei Navalny, Boris Nemtsov -- conspiring against Russia. It's unfortunate that Eastern Ukraine seems to get all its news from Russia, where there is no free press.
Not that Ukraine was such a well-run, democratic country. It wasn't -- corruption, inequality, general mess, but is the alternative -- joining Russia -- any better?
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 15, 2014 1:41:23 GMT
Not that Ukraine was such a well-run, democratic country. It wasn't -- corruption, inequality, general mess, but is the alternative -- joining Russia -- any better? bjd...probably for the Crimea is is. Wages, pensions, living standards, etc, are already heading towards Russian levels. Quality of life and security will depend substantially on how the minorities (Tartars, and now Ukrainians and some others) are treated and whether they are discriminated against and respond with 'civil disobedience' to their situation. But it's noticeable already how little sentiment the Ukrainian body politic has towards its former autonomous republic and 'indigenous' inhabitants... re eastern Ukraine...difficult to predict exactly what the outcome here is going to be. Unlike the disciplined militsia that 'emerged' in Crimea, the 'insurgents' in Donetsk, Luhansk, etc, show more the hallmarks of being an angry mob fired up by the one-sided version of events being disseminated from Moscow at the moment (as opposed to the one-sided Kyiv account). The alternative is that Russia are creating what are known in this type of situation as 'facts on the ground' (also a NATO tactic) from which reactive action is then predicated... But the moment of truth has already arrived for Ukraine, anyway. The IMF's 'shock treatment' accompanying their substantial cash advance must be one hell of a shock to the 'plain people' of the country, with a 50% rise in fuel costs due on May 1st, subsidies on other basics to be eliminated and the already weak Hrivna set to float freely and devalue even more... Looking out the other window, we see Russia about to raise the cost of gas to the commercial level and looking for immediate repayment of its outstanding debts and arrears. Which brings us back to our previous discussions here... I stand by my previous assertion that the EU's decision to make their financial 'offer' of a few months ago an 'either-or' in relation to the Russian counter-offer remains one of the stupidest political demarches of modern times...
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Post by bjd on Apr 15, 2014 7:15:19 GMT
Interesting that somehow Crimea has disappeared from headline news, other than "Is this another Crimea?" in regard to eastern Ukraine.
It's certainly obvious that the new Ukrainian government has few options in eastern Ukraine. Making threats and deadlines and being unable to follow up on them is hardly a way to earn respect and force those taking over the government offices and buildings to leave. (Although I admit I see little point in their smashing things and setting fires. After all, if they want autonomy or independence or joining Russia, they will have to pay for the repairs and rebuilding.)
Re the "stupid political demarche" you mention, Jack, I think the EU just figured that their "soft" power and way of life was just so attractive that any country would jump to sign up to a relation with it, despite their not being invited to join the EU or any practical or concrete promises being made.
Whatever the outcome, the economy of Ukraine is going to suffer. Either from the IMF's requirements, or from the loss of much industrial production.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 16, 2014 1:24:14 GMT
bjd, it was always likely to be like that, in my opinion. As every pub bore now knows, Crimea was arguably never 'really' part of Ukraine and to be honest, the whole business would possibly be forgotten ( a la Abkhazia and South Ossetia) fairly quickly if this 'virus' wasn't in danger of spreading... One of the interesting things about eastern Ukraine is how easily gangs of 'irregulars' have taken control of key buildings, police stations, etc. One would imagine that any self-respecting polity couldn't or wouldn't allow itself to be brushed aside with such ease but the state seems to have no writ in that region, at all. Opinions vary about this but one theory is that Yanukovich and his minions deliberately ran down the security forces to dilute the effectiveness of the Ukrainian state. The different Oblasty in Ukraine have always been the preserve of whoever was in charge locally, but you would imagine there would be a strong central security force loyal to the state. Instead, we have this National Guard being raised which will probably appeal to the Pravy (Right) Sektor and Svoboda tribal elements. Sending them to deal with these incidents will be a surefire fast-track to civil war... I take your point about 'soft power' but that cuts no ice with the current Kremlin team/gang who have nearly all been at the helm now for over a decade, seen how the world works and have no fears of any of their current opponents. As you say, whatever way you look at it, the Ukrainian economy is banjaxed (wonderful Irish expression!). What may possibly bring everyone to their senses (or alternatively start another 'cool war') will be if Russia switches off the gas in Ukraine due to arrears and/or unpaid bills, and NaftoGaz (Ukrainian state gas company) do what they did last time in 2006 and start syphoning off gas that is being delivered to the rest of Europe. The alternative of Europe selling their own Russian gas back to Ukraine at a discount is also likely to provoke a strong Russian response... On the other hand, maybe salvation is at hand from an unlikely source...)) www.naturalgaseurope.com/cyprus-key-to-european-energy-security
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Post by bjd on Apr 16, 2014 7:48:13 GMT
My God! Having Cyprus and natural gas supplies solved in one go! Too good to be true.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 17, 2014 1:06:12 GMT
My God! Having Cyprus and natural gas supplies solved in one go! Too good to be true. No end to the irony, bjd! If you recall, when the EU was 'softening up' Cyprus and its people for bitter medicine in relation to its struggling banks, the word was put out that it was a haven for Russian 'hot' money. In other words, the Cypriots had only themselves to blame for dealing with those unscrupulous oligarchs... Of course, now that the excrement has collided with the air-conditioning in Ukraine, it transpires that the bigger powers cannot apply even the the mildest of economic sanctions against Russia because...yes folks, they are harbouring so much of this dubious Slavic collateral themselves that any serious financial measures are simply unthinkable! Plus ca change, etc, etc...
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Post by bjd on Apr 17, 2014 6:25:01 GMT
It's a shame that such cynicism is justified.
Every morning when I get the paper, there are more depressing articles to read about what's going on. Are the Ukrainian forces really holding their fire and trying to be as peaceful as possible, or are they just giving in without a struggle? And the irony of the Russians saying that the Ukrainians have to stop attacking and interfering! Obviously using the method of "attack first and disarm your opponent".
The borders as they are now were drawn up the the Soviets. That the unidentified men have the red and black insignia showing Soviet victory in WW2 (aka The Great Patriotic War), is a sign of what? That was the last time they won a war so they are proud of it? (Unless, of course, they are supporters of the Stade Toulousain rugby club?)
So, you still going to Ukraine on vacation this summer, Jack?
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 17, 2014 9:55:58 GMT
Depends on your mindset. "Soviet" solutions can cut both ways, especially when it comes to bank accounts and real estate. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 17, 2014 9:57:44 GMT
That - as per the Putin media - this is once again a righteous response to "Fascist aggression and nationalist banditry". My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by bjd on Apr 17, 2014 15:01:48 GMT
And you who reads history, Patrick -- you will recall that Stalin signed a pact with the fascist aggressor until the UUSR was invaded in its turn. Somehow, Putin is leaving that out of his rewritten history lesson.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 18, 2014 4:07:07 GMT
So, you still going to Ukraine on vacation this summer, Jack? That's still the plan, Bjd. At this stage,I'm probably more concerned with the Belarus portion of the journey because if the situation deteriorates any further, the authorities there will well revert to their 'securocratic' default mode. My vague plan at the moment would see me spending around a week there before crossing into Ukraine towards Lutsk or Rivne. An opinionated fool like myself, blundering around their 'mindlocked' country may not be the most welcome individual they meet, particularly on the kind of obscure routes that I tend to favour... All to play for...
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 18, 2014 6:54:00 GMT
Oh but if it's referred to (not that it's of any great relevance) it will of course be put down to Stalin's entirely justified mistrust of Britain (and the US's standing aside altogether would not go unmentioned). And to be fair, there was more than an element of pass-the-parcel going on in the hope that Hitler would have his war on the other lot rather than our lot (whichever way you define us and them). My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by bjd on Apr 18, 2014 8:22:33 GMT
Plus ça change...(see post 50 above)
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 18, 2014 22:22:28 GMT
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Post by bjd on Apr 20, 2014 5:53:32 GMT
re Google -- Sergei Brin, one of the founders of Google studied and made his billions in the States, but was born in the USSR. Maybe some of the mentality rubbed off?
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