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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2017 5:02:06 GMT
The presidential campaign ended at midnight Friday, so now everybody has to wait to vote until 08:00 Sunday and see the results at 20:00 Sunday.
The very final polls show a surge of 3-4% for Macron after Le Pen's despicable performance during the debate.
The final poll by Le Monde (using a sample of 8200 persons) says Macron 63% vs. Le Pen 37%.
This is the biggest change ever in the final days of a campaign and is attributed totally to the televised debate, so apparently debates can be useful on rare occasions. Even quite a few of the blank ballot group have changed their minds. In the Mélenchon camp, 55% say they'll vote for Macron now, up from 48%. 10% still say they'll vote for Le Pen, but that is down 4 points. In the Fillon camp, 48% say they'll vote for Macron (+6%) and 28% for Le Pen (-4%). The Hamon (socialist) camp remains stable because nearly all of them had already decided to vote for Macron. One interesting albeit marginally important change is that of people who voted for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan in the first round. He is the only one of the candidates to say that he would support Le Pen, and he was rewarded with the promise of being named Prime Minister. 27% of his voters say they will vote for Macron (+8%) and 39% plan to vote for Le Pen (-11%).
Now to see if this really happens...
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Post by bjd on May 6, 2017 5:56:57 GMT
Yes, we are all supposed to sit back and think about who we are planning to vote for, with no more meetings, polls or anything for 24 hours.
Everyone I have talked politics with in the past few days has ended the conversation by saying, "vote properly on Sunday!", meaning of course, vote Macron.
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Post by lagatta on May 6, 2017 14:51:15 GMT
Here expats are voting today. I know that is the case for other places in the Western Hemisphere, but is it also true for expats in other European countries?
The Consulate is promising that there will be more voting stations at the school where the vote is being held, including polls reserved for elderly or disabled voters. It was really hard for some voters to wait standing for over three hours. The vote was extended to late in the evening.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2017 15:24:54 GMT
No, today just concerns the Western Hemisphere -- DOM-TOMs and expatriates in the other countries of the zone.
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Post by bixaorellana on May 6, 2017 15:54:02 GMT
Is the hacking of Macron's campaign all over the news in France? I read about it in The Guardian, but what most impressed me in the article is how strict the French rules are about no campaigning in the last day before the polls open. article
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2017 16:05:23 GMT
Actually, it is being almost completely ignored except by web maniacs. (Yes, I confess that I followed a few abominable threads on Twitter to see what they were saying.) It was requested by authorities that the French press ignore this event, with a rather ominous mention that any media that propagated any sort of fake news was in grave risk of serious prosecution, most particularly in this brief period of no campaigning. And the press and broadcast media seem to be respecting this request order, and I also noticed that the Belgian and Swiss press are doing the same even though they risk nothing. It is all basically considered to be more stupid lying bullshit and not worthy of mention.
I should mention that the news on the radio and TV is so b o r i n g today since no mention can be made of the candidates.* They have brought out every "human interest" story imaginable, which they obviously save up for days like this, and it almost makes you wish that a plane would crash somewhere. No, not really. After all, it is only a 44 hour period. We'll survive.
*I hadn't fully read your link yet when I started posting, but the article explains the law very well.
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Post by bixaorellana on May 6, 2017 21:32:12 GMT
I should mention that the news on the radio and TV is so b o r i n g today I read that as "news on the radio and TV is sobering" and started to panic.
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 12:09:45 GMT
I know that it is pretty much standard operating procedure for American presidents to suddenly show up at a hamburger or pizza place (with only a few dozen photographers), but it isn't done much in France. However, François Hollande showed that he was ready to get back to ordinary life when he suddenly popped into Café Philippe (just off Place de la République) unannounced for lunch yesterday. The mayor of the 3rd arrondissement had reserved a table for a few people but did not say with whom he was dining. Hollande did make a point of going to each table to say hello to the other customers and also went to see the kitchen staff. There was a bigger surprise for the customers at the end of lunch when he was picked up by Mohammed VI, the king of Morocco, who has been on holiday in Paris this week. They went to the IMA to look at some stuff.
And there were no photographers. (But in any case, Hollande will be old news as of tonight.)
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 13:47:25 GMT
Results:
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon : Macron 63,3%, Le Pen 36,7% Saint-Barthélemy : Macron 58,4%, Le Pen 41,6% Saint-Martin : Macron 67,6%, Le Pen 32,4% Guadeloupe : Macron 75,1% , Le Pen 24,9% Martinique : Macron 77,5, Le Pen 22,5% Guyane : Macron 65%, Le Pen 35%
USA :
New-York : Macron 94,7%, Le Pen 5,3% Chicago / Midwest : Macron 92%, Le Pen 8% Boston : Macron 95,7%, Le Pen 4,3%
Canada :
Ottawa & Montréal : Macron 90%, Le Pen 10%
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 14:03:42 GMT
I was surprised to read in the Belgian and Swiss press (which is where I get my information until the polls close in France) that the "Montréal problem" -- the fact that people had to wait 2-3 hours to vote -- is due to Canadian law, which only allows one polling station in the city. New York City, for example, had 9 polling stations (out of a total of 44 in the United States).
Meanwhile, my source in Guatemala informed me that participation increased by 2% and that Macron received 85% of the vote.
The "low" (65%) showing of Macron in French Guiana is certainly due to the immigration problem. Oddly enough, France's longest border with a foreign country is with Brazil, and there are huge numbers of illegal Brazilians in Guiana -- and also quite a few Surinamians. But the Brazilians are considered to be the problem because (unfortunately?) there is a lot of gold to be panned out of the rivers near the border.
As for Saint Barth, I find the results disgraceful but not surprising since it is a malignant tumour of the ultra rich in the Caribbean.
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Post by bixaorellana on May 7, 2017 14:42:41 GMT
That one polling station thing sounds like an old law that was never revisited and now causes problems for citizens and non-citizens alike. Your comment about Saint Barth made my day. I realize this is starry-eyed naïveté on my part, but I sometimes wonder if grotesque candidates such as Trump and Le Pen don't garner a certain number of votes simply because uniformed voters have heard their names so many times. This video was interesting to me because the it shows a campaign strategy that seems so American to my eyes. I present it with some trepidation, as those of you who know Paris might bristle at how parts of it are characterized -- the NYTimes can be really wrong-footed about that sometimes. www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000005076712/french-election-macron-le-pen.html
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 14:56:00 GMT
Actually, that video corresponds exactly to the reports that we have seen here. A very large number of people say that voting is useless, that all politicians are the same, that nothing will ever be done for them.
Among the reports I have been reading, it appears that 10% of the ballots cast are blank or void, which will constitute a record. Nothing certain about abstentions yet, since one of the principal calls was for people who feel they need to vote no matter what vote after 17:00 (which is 4 minutes from now in France), so that their opposition will be noticeable in the statistics -- voting participation is measured at noon and at 17:00 while waiting for the polls to close at 19:00 or 20:00.
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Post by lagatta on May 7, 2017 15:21:27 GMT
I was wondering about the vote in Guiana. I thought that the Le Pen voters might have been white colonials from metropolitan France who looked down on the Black and multi-racial people.
All the Le Pen voters here should be razzed as "maudits immigrés". We had a lot more of that variety of French immigrant here decades ago, the young French immigrants and students are nothing like that. The only rallies were for Macron and Mélenchon - but of course the FN supporters have learnt to keep their mouths shut.
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Post by bixaorellana on May 7, 2017 15:22:22 GMT
It's 17:21 in France right now. When will they announce the 17:00 voter participation?
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 15:48:58 GMT
65.30% at 17:00, down from 69.40% two weeks ago.
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Post by bjd on May 7, 2017 18:12:51 GMT
Thank heavens -- Macron has won with just over 65% of the vote.
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 18:16:34 GMT
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Post by bixaorellana on May 7, 2017 18:55:56 GMT
Thank goodness!
Just saw the headline and scampered over here to see what you all are saying.
A bullet dodged and maybe Macron will be someone capable of working with others enough to effect some positive sociological changes.
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Post by bjd on May 7, 2017 19:26:15 GMT
The Interior Minister is speaking. He says final results are not in yet, but participation was 75.9%, spoiled or blank ballots were just over 9%.
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 20:02:46 GMT
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Post by bixaorellana on May 7, 2017 20:13:26 GMT
Ha ~ go Bernie!
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Post by lagatta on May 7, 2017 21:02:06 GMT
I heartily agree with Bernie. Now, you know I don't like Macron very much (but I also had sharp criticisms of Mélenchon and his Frexit-lite orientation) but it is indeed very important to have rejected racism and xenophobia, as well as a lying populist "concern" for working-class people affected by globalisation. At least the She-Wolf of the FN has been shown the door.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 3:46:06 GMT
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Post by bixaorellana on May 8, 2017 4:43:59 GMT
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Post by bjd on May 8, 2017 4:47:00 GMT
What did you expect? In tune with their fine personalities and those of their followers. Farage is just annoyed because the Ukip was wiped out in the local elections. Le Pen has never been known for her finesse and class.
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Post by lagatta on May 8, 2017 10:10:00 GMT
I'm not surprised by any of that.
Nobody says anything about men who marry much younger women. Pierre Trudeau's wife Margaret was 30 years younger than he was when they married.
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Post by whatagain on May 8, 2017 14:44:03 GMT
Nobody says anything about men who marry much younger women.
so true.
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Post by whatagain on May 8, 2017 15:02:37 GMT
Something to think about.
In 2002 Chirac won against the basterd with 82% of the votes. Today Macron gets 64% against the bitch.
what is interesting is to express the votes in total of the French who were registered (means I don't care about the people who could vote but didn't bother to ask to vote).
2002 : Chirac wins with 62% Basterd loes with 13% abenteist and nul and white had 24% (forgive the total at 101%)
2017 : Macron wins with 42% the bitch loses with 22% abenteist and nul and white make up for 36% (total is 100% this time)
Macron has a third less voters than Chirac had...
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Post by bjd on May 8, 2017 18:50:58 GMT
This has been rehashed endlessly today on various radio programs. It is said that the National Front has been successful in showing itself as less dangerous, people have become used to having it around, young people who voted le Pen don't remember her father and the history of the NF party...
I think it didn't help that Melenchon didn't tell his voters to support any candidate against the National Front.
So Macron indeed won 66% against 34% but so many people abstained or voted blank ballots.
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Post by bjd on May 9, 2017 9:57:35 GMT
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