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Post by vangs on Apr 28, 2017 16:35:33 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2017 18:28:23 GMT
Things like that seem obvious from the start. Brexit is supposed to cover all aspects of leaving the EU. No picking and choosing.
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Post by bixaorellana on Apr 28, 2017 18:29:00 GMT
I am kind of tentative about airing any opinions I have about Brexit (I think it's a terrible idea!) because of my general ignorance. However, this morning I read the article you linked, Vangs, and thought, "Well, hell -- what did they expect?" Really, I've read so many articles on the subject since last year and that's my usual response to the shock some UK citizens feel on learning what they'll lose once they're out of the EU.
From the article linked above: ... when asked about reciprocal healthcare at the start of the year, the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, said it was one of the rights of those who retired to Spain or France and that he wanted to secure it early on in negotiations, but could not guarantee this.
Isn't it pretty much the case that the EU is holding all the cards in any negotiation?
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Post by fumobici on Apr 28, 2017 20:24:28 GMT
Yes bixa, the UK has almost no leverage vs. the EU. In fact if the EU want to be dicks and play real hardball at the negotiating table, they will be able to do incredible economic damage to the UK and make living or working in the EU impossibly difficult for UK citizens. Probably the only thing that could salvage a Brexit is if in the next several years there was a Frexit or Italexit and then an early leaver of a quickly sinking ship would might gain certain advantages as a result of of not having to navigate that crisis head-on.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2017 20:28:18 GMT
The EU is telling the UK that the basic exit ticket for all of the things for which they had already signed on is going to be about 60 billion euros.
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Post by mickthecactus on May 2, 2017 9:44:49 GMT
Why?
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Post by bjd on May 2, 2017 11:21:52 GMT
Yes bixa, the UK has almost no leverage vs. the EU. In fact if the EU want to be dicks and play real hardball at the negotiating table, they will be able to do incredible economic damage to the UK and make living or working in the EU impossibly difficult for UK citizens. Probably the only thing that could salvage a Brexit is if in the next several years there was a Frexit or Italexit and then an early leaver of a quickly sinking ship would might gain certain advantages as a result of of not having to navigate that crisis head-on. I don't see why the Europeans should not play hardball with the UK. The Brits chose (with a small majority of those who actually voted) to leave. Well, let them. Nothing "being dicks" about it. Why should the UK expect some special privileges from the EU if they have decided to go their own way? May and her advisers seem to think they have a winning hand in the negotiations but they don't. And the EU calculates that 60 billion euros is for the agreements that the UK has signed on for and is now planning to pull out from. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk
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Post by mickthecactus on May 2, 2017 12:02:46 GMT
The Guardian is hardly neutral in these matters.
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Post by mossie on May 2, 2017 13:40:05 GMT
and we all know that the EU is financially illiterate, they haven't had their accounts signed off for years and corruption seems endemic. If anything they owe us a substantial sum for all the works carried out in their countries with our money. They are crying because we are one of the few who actually contribute, the rest just sit back and expect to take.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2017 14:33:03 GMT
If I sell my apartment and leave the building, I must still pay for everything that I voted for at the building assemblies, even if the works are done 2 or 3 years later. I imagine that the rules of the EU are the same. The UK asked to join the club with its eyes open, so I suspect that it willingly accepted all of the rules at the time. And of course as you know, every change that was made over the years was made by unanimous vote, because that's how the EU works. They clearly read the rulebook, because they found article 50 with no problem. 60 billion euros must be paid for all of the works that it agreed to finance. (Luckily, many of these works are in the UK itself but will be partially financed by the other EU members, too.) I would tend to believe that the advocates of Brexit hid this little detail from the voters when they were promoting their plan, or the result of the referendum might have been different. Now it is time to pay the piper. Perhaps they can throw in Gibraltar as collateral.
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Post by bixaorellana on May 2, 2017 16:08:54 GMT
The UK asked to join the club with its eyes open, so I suspect that it willingly accepted all of the rules at the time. And of course as you know, every change that was made over the years was made by unanimous vote, because that's how the EU works. ... I would tend to believe that the advocates of Brexit hid this little detail from the voters when they were promoting their plan, or the result of the referendum might have been different. Now it is time to pay the piper. And now it looks as though someone besides the citizens of the UK, namely those who duped them, might also have to pay the piper. There has been a complaint submitted to the Crown Prosecution Service by an independent group about “undue influence” on the referendum campaign. The complaint is being considered by the special crime team, which deals with all election offences. Under electoral law “undue influence” is considered a corrupt practice and includes the use of “a fraudulent device or contrivance” to “impede or prevent or intend to impede or prevent the free exercise of the franchise”. ... Watt [Prof Bob Watt, an expert in electoral law from the University of Buckingham] and his colleagues who have prepared the case say it centres on “instances where the leave campaigns continued to make assertions of fact that were knowingly misleading”, including the oft-cited claim of the EU costing the UK £350m a week. That claim, made by Vote Leave, was contrary to evidence from the Office for National Statistics, Watt said. Other instances cited to the DPP include alleged misrepresentations on pro-Brexit leaflets that Nissan and Unilever supported leaving the EU. Watt also cited Vote Leave’s posters that claimed “Turkey is joining the EU”, as well as the assertion that “the UK has no border controls whilst in the EU” when billions are spent on the UK Border Agency. ... If a case was brought successfully, it would not have any bearing on the referendum result or prevent the UK leaving the EU, but could result in criminal punishment of anyone held responsible by the courts for making false statements. full article hereAnd reading this article will make 60 billion euros seem like small change: The overall cost of Britain’s break from Europe is expected to be an astronomical £220 billion over four years, dwarfing the NHS budget which was a focal part of the ‘Leave’ campaign. New forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) show that government debt is to hit £1.945 trillion in five years, with experts attributing the £220 billion growth to the direct results of Brexit.
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Post by mickthecactus on May 3, 2017 11:43:24 GMT
If the Leave group hid it then why didn't the Remain group publicise it every hour on the hour? If they did I missed it.
The Remain group campaign was mostly based on talking to us as 8 year olds mixed with scaring the sh1t out of us. Obama was probably told to say that we wouldn't get a trade deal with the US in the next 100 years or when Donald Trump gets elected, whichever comes first.
Chancellor Osborne said that if we leave he would issue an emergency budget by dawn of the following day decreeing that the first born of all families must be slain to cover the astronomical cost of leaving the EU.
And where does this €60bn or €100bn come from? Is it plucked out to discourage others? Frexit, Nexit, Grexit? It'll be Mexit next.....
And what are these "works"?
I would like to see some listing justifying these figures. Doubt that I shall get it.....
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2017 12:01:00 GMT
Well, there were so many pages about it on my Google search that I could not choose one, and in any case the more serious articles mention the fact that the amount will continue evolving (up) the longer the negotiations take. And nobody even mentioned the wall between Eire and Northern Ireland that will be built and which the UK will pay for.
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Post by mickthecactus on May 3, 2017 12:26:26 GMT
Bixa might be able to advise on that last sentence....
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Post by cheerypeabrain on May 3, 2017 16:45:15 GMT
Things are getting increasingly testy over Brexit. Leicester voted remain and all of my friends and ex colleagues at the hospitals I worked at are full of fear and trepidation. I have a few relatives who are pro leave and they keep getting quite cross and shouty when we discuss the implications altho they only have a vague idea of what happens now. My sister (71) voted leave because she's one of those "I'm not a racist but..." people who complete that sentence with THEY'RE taking 'our'jobs, our housing, want benefits, free healthcare/education etc (her husband is a semi retired farmer and relies heavily on his EU subsidies btw)....she thinks that leaving the EU will also mean that people from Africa, India, Pakistan and other countries not in the EU will also be prevented from coming here God knows why thats even A THING!..it's bonkers really. Nobody really seems to have a plan and nobody seems to know what is really going on. I'm fed up with it all me...
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2017 17:18:16 GMT
Well, if they're worried about Africa, India, Pakistan, etc., perhaps they should have voted to leave the Commonwealth first.
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Post by bixaorellana on May 3, 2017 17:25:10 GMT
If the Leave group hid it then why didn't the Remain group publicise it every hour on the hour? If they did I missed it. Mick, I don't think in terms of the lawsuit that it matters whether or not the the claims were rebutted, simply that they were made. And where does this €60bn or €100bn come from? I believe it depends on what is factored in, i.e., projected inflation included or not. And what are these "works"? There is a section in this overview addressing how the UK benefits from EU funding. And here is an interesting way to consider how who owes what to whom might be figured: www.express.co.uk/news/politics/785946/Brexit-will-Britain-pay-EU-exit-bill-or-European-Union-owe-UK-money
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Post by mickthecactus on May 3, 2017 17:50:05 GMT
If the Leave group hid it then why didn't the Remain group publicise it every hour on the hour? If they did I missed it. Mick, I don't think in terms of the lawsuit that it matters whether or not the the claims were rebutted, simply that they were made. And where does this €60bn or €100bn come from? I believe it depends on what is factored in, i.e., projected inflation included or not. And what are these "works"? There is a section in this overview addressing how the UK benefits from EU funding. And here is an interesting way to consider how who owes what to whom might be figured: www.express.co.uk/news/politics/785946/Brexit-will-Britain-pay-EU-exit-bill-or-European-Union-owe-UK-moneyThanks Bixa although I wouldn't trust the Express with fish and chips. What it shows is nobody really has a clue what the figure , if any, should be. There's a long way to go...
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Post by cheerypeabrain on May 3, 2017 17:59:26 GMT
Kerouac...my point exactly...unfortunately a few think that the Commonwealth was ok because their perceived position within (or rather OVER) it..obviously they want to go back to child chimney sweeps, slums, high child mortality rates, workhouses and the empire...you know....good old Victorian values...
In town today I saw people from lots of different cultures, heard dozens of different languages and they all chose to live in Leicester. Most can speak English, and if they can't their children will...the market here sells vegetables I've never heard of but the stall holders and other customers are quite happy to explain how to prepare it. I think we're bloody lucky. Gone a bit off topic sorry...
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Post by bixaorellana on May 13, 2017 15:22:31 GMT
I wouldn't say that was off topic, Cheery -- more like a warning of what rich cultural additions could be lost. Here is something else that could be lost. Mostly I don't place undue attention on articles talking of what could happen, but this one is also a most interesting look at the history of international banking in London: www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/business/dealbook/brexit-uk-london-banking.html
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Post by bixaorellana on Dec 8, 2017 16:21:34 GMT
Nothing like watching a politician in action to provoke bitter laughter. Madam I'll-sell-my-mother-into-sexual-slavery-to-keep-my-position yaps and postures as though she actually drove some kind of hard bargain with the EU. As far as I can tell, the UK is automatically the supplicant in any of these talks. www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42277040
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Post by mickthecactus on Dec 8, 2017 16:40:04 GMT
Apparently she speaks very well of you Bixa...
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Post by bixaorellana on Dec 8, 2017 16:56:04 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Dec 8, 2017 17:29:06 GMT
One of the articles I read said that May changed her position 90% and the EU just 10%.
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Post by mickthecactus on Dec 8, 2017 19:36:42 GMT
And her skirts are too short.
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Post by bixaorellana on Dec 8, 2017 19:39:19 GMT
Unfortunate choice of words considering what's bound to happen to little Theresa in these negotiations.
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Post by bixaorellana on Dec 27, 2017 18:22:00 GMT
Philip Hammond has come under pressure to publish another set of hidden documents relating to how a series of possible Brexit outcomes, including no deal, will impact on the economy. ... Twenty-five Labour MPs have written to the chancellor demanding that he release the studies, which have so far been kept confidential ... The move comes after a similar suggestion by David Davis that his Brexit department had carried out 58 sectoral analyses resulted in immense pressure to publish the findings The Brexit secretary was heavily criticised after putting out documents that he admitted had been stripped of commercially sensitive material and anything considered detrimental to the UK’s negotiating position. ... Asked by a committee member, Catherine McKinnell, if the information ought to be placed in the public domain given that it would help inform the public and parliament about the final outcome, Hammond suggested that it ought to be published but at a later date. “When we get to the point where we have a deal negotiated and agreed, and it is being put before parliament, at that stage the maximum amount of analysis being placed in the public domain would be helpful,” he said. “At this stage, when we have not even begun the negotiation yet, I am afraid that to put our analysis in the public domain would be deeply unhelpful to the negotiation. There is no decision for parliament to make at this point. Parliament’s decision point will be when the government have negotiated a deal and are presenting it to parliament for endorsement.” But a Labour MP, Leslie, argued that that would be too late as MPs would by then be faced with a single option.full article: www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/philip-hammond-urged-publish-treasury-brexit-impact-studies
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