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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2012 18:13:42 GMT
I have always been interested in elections, not just the ones in the country where I am living, but the elections just about anywhere. I am the sort of person who jumps on the internet the next morning to see what happened in Australia, Burma, Senegal, Canada, Portugal or Argentina when there are elections. That's just me, obviously, because far away elections rarely have any effect at all on the country in which we are living. But I like to see what the local issues are, what the people are thinking and what the politicians are promising. I guess that might be the reason that I got my university degree in political science. So anyway, some of you might know that we are having elections in France this year, and the first round of the presidential elections is in 2 weeks -- and they will be following by legislative elections in June. It's kind of interesting how different elections can be in certain countries when you start comparing the situations. Political billboards are forbidden in France for a very large time period before the election -- so large that we do not even see political billboards anymore. We just see little posters on walls like these as the election approaches. Political advertising on television or radio is totally forbidden, so the French are always aghast when they are shown some of the ads from American campaigns. We just ended a period of about a month where any appearance by a candidate or his/her representative on TV had to be strictly equal to the time accorded to any of the other qualified candidates. This year, 10 presidential candidates qualified. This requires obtaining at least 500 signatures from elected officials (usually mayors) from at least 30 different départements. The final results are generally surprising. (We'll get to that later.) The "official" campaign began today. As of today, it was possible for the candidates to put their posters on the official panels in front of the polling stations. There are 11 panels -- one which will show the polling stations for the area based on one's address, in case you did not receive your voting card -- and one panel each for the candidates. The order of the panels is determined by a drawing. The first and last panels are considered to be the best ones, because they are the ones that people look at the most. So here are the candidates in the official order of the panels. Eva Joly is the Green candidate. She is of Norwegian origin and spent most of her career as a judge. Her campaign has been awful, some of it being her fault as a non-professional and some of it due to in-fighting in the Green party. She will probably get only 2-3%, but the Green party will be rewarded by the Socialists in the legislative elections by being given at least 10% of the districts to present as the main candidate for the left. Marine Le Pen follows in her father's footsteps at leader of the National Front, which is radically anti-immigrant and anti-Islam, among other things. Actually, they are about as close to a modern Nazi party as you can get, being "National Socialists" -- very nationalistic and very much in favor of social measures as long as they benefit only ethnic French. The disenfranchised classes are very much drawn to her (the unemployed, the poor...) as well as racists and anti-Semites. Nicolas Sarkozy is France's very own Duracell bunny. Most of you have heard of him. He has become so unpopular that his promises are becoming weird, such as his latest one to simplify requirements for getting a drivers licence. His main hope is to appeal as much as possible to right-leaning people who fear and loathe the Socialists. Jean-Luc Melanchon is a former Socialist who split from the party over EU issues (both the radical left and right are against accepting many EU rules) and created the "Leftist Front," which has formed a coalition with the French Communist Party this year. Since the Socialist candidate is considered to be too lukewarm for many "true" leftists, Melanchon has been steadily rising in the polls since he is an excellent orator, but most of the people voting for him know that they will vote for the Socialist candidate in the second round of the election, which they find both disappointing and realistic. Philippe Poutou is the candidate of the New Anticapitalist Party, which replaced the Communist Revolutionary League, one of our two Trotskyist parties that just can't get along. He is a worker in a Ford auto plant. When he is president, the banks will be nationalized again, as will all big industry. Any company making a profit will be forbidden from laying off workers.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2012 18:29:39 GMT
Nathalie Arthaud is the candidate of the other Trotskyist party, Worker's Struggle. Her programme is pretty much the same as that of Poutou, but she would probably not be against displaying the severed heads of the CEO's of France's major corporations on spikes. Jacques Cheminade is a political UFO. He is very close to the Lyndon LaRouche movement in the United States, but non-Americans will be completely perplexed by this reference. Let's just say that his projects include colonizing the moon and Mars. He describes himself as a Gaullist leftist but will not endorse anybody for the second round of the election. This is actually the second time he has made it on the ballot. The last time was in 1995 when he got 0.28% of the vote. François Bayrou considers himself to be the centrist candidate, and a lot of people believe him. Unfortunately he seems to be unable to make up his mind on anything that is not a centrist issue. He splintered from the right but refuses the left. He does not have very many political friends. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan is the totally "anti-European" candidate. He will remove France from the euro and give us the franc again. Apart from that, I'm not really sure what his plans are. Finally, François Hollande is the Socialist candidate and currently the front runner. He is very mild-mannered but he has a very sharp tongue and is famous for his put downs. During this campaign, he has tried to become a shouting, indignant orator, but I don't find it totally convincing, and he is ruining his voice. He is the former companion of the Socialist candidate of the last election, Ségolène Royal, and they are trying to maintain cordial relations, especially since they had 4 children together. Only in France! I'll try to add more details about the elections soon, such as the rules for the official TV spots which start tonight.
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Post by bjd on Apr 9, 2012 19:57:05 GMT
I was horrified recently to learn that Nathalie Arthaud is a high-school economics teacher. Given her political leanings, I doubt that she is giving kids any kind of objective views.
I must admit that these elections do not inspire me at all. The only word that comes to my mind when I see or hear François Hollande is "dork". He is a lousy public speaker.
I like Eva Joly, but agree that her election campaign has been terrible.
No wonder they are beginning to worry that the abstention rate will be high.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2012 20:05:44 GMT
Well, the political leanings of my teachers never bothered me, and there were damned few who even pretended to be "neutral." I don't think high school students get "turned" by their teachers.
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Post by auntieannie on Apr 9, 2012 20:48:40 GMT
um... who will benefit from abstentionnism? Marine LePen and the current president?
Too bad about Eva Joly, her campaign started well... but it seems greenies everywhere bicker so much... although looking at the profile of these candidates, it's not only them who cannot seem to agree on basics.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2012 20:59:08 GMT
The abstentionism is indeed the big question, but everybody has already agreed on the culprit since it will not be the candidates -- the elections are taking place during school holidays, so it will be decreed that that is the reason. There are no provisons for voting by mail in France; the only possibility is through a sort of power of attorney -- one voter can vote for one other voter if the papers are filled out and validated on time, and that is usually considered to be more trouble than it's worth.
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Post by auntieannie on Apr 9, 2012 21:32:28 GMT
ah... you're not too advanced in France! In Switzerland, it is already easy for anyone to vote by mail and now we are fighting to get electronic voting rights for everyone.
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Post by mich64 on Apr 9, 2012 22:39:00 GMT
Reading with eagerness to learn about the political process in France.
Are there public debates amongst the candidates?
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Post by fumobici on Apr 10, 2012 2:18:46 GMT
This looks similar to the electoral procedure in Italy; no bought media spots, a relatively brief run-up and the panels on the street with the posters affixed. I'd rate the French posters generally slicker than the Italian's and the prominence of the affiliated parties are less prominent.
Forgive my ignorance, why isn't Ségolène Royal in the fray? She seems more naturally suited to a candidacy than Hollande.
I wish we ran our elections more like that in the US. The system we use is an obscenity.
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Post by fumobici on Apr 10, 2012 2:21:58 GMT
The abstentionism is indeed the big question, but everybody has already agreed on the culprit since it will not be the candidates -- the elections are taking place during school holidays, so it will be decreed that that is the reason. There are no provisons for voting by mail in France; the only possibility is through a sort of power of attorney -- one voter can vote for one other voter if the papers are filled out and validated on time, and that is usually considered to be more trouble than it's worth. No mail voting! How odd. Where I live in Washington State, we went over to mail voting only a few years back. I miss the ritual of going to the poll and getting the little "I Voted" sticker. Ideally there should be both ways I'd think.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2012 4:48:08 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, why isn't Ségolène Royal in the fray? She seems more naturally suited to a candidacy than Hollande. The Socialist party organized primaries this time, and Ségolène Royal came in 3rd, with less than 10% of the votes.
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Post by bjd on Apr 10, 2012 8:54:12 GMT
I don't know whether there are any debates scheduled before the second round. I remember watching the one between Sarko and Royale in 2007 and found she wasn't especially good.
Of course abstentionism is never the fault of the candidates. ;D
I wish they would count blank votes in France. You make the effort to go and vote, but these votes are not counted as being for "none of the above".
In Canada too, the electoral period is quite short -- like in England. I would hate the US system. Not only because of the wacko Republican candidates, but because it goes on so long. I get the impression that barely is the president in office, that the next election cycle seems to begin.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2012 9:02:09 GMT
There will be at least one debate before the second round. Sarkozy is asking for 2 debates, but he won't necessarily get satisfaction.
They can't have a real debate before the first round simply because since yesterday, everybody has to have exactly equal screen time, and the major candidates absolute refuse to be seen with the tiny candidates. I was reading one complaint today mentioning the fact that the minor candidates have already had 25% of the media time while only representing 4% of the votes.
However, media coverage is super important for the minor candidates, since most voters don't even know who the hell they are. One of the popularity polls (not a who-are-you-going-to-vote-for poll) showed that Nathalie Arthaud instantly gained 11 points of popularity when people finally saw her interviewed on television.
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Post by alanseago on Apr 10, 2012 13:30:49 GMT
I don't vote because I am still British. After 15 years residence I went to the Préfècture to apply for French nationality. The lady smiled and murmured' "Why?" I had the same reaction in Oloron when I tried to change the address in my driving licence. Elections have come and gone, making little change to my life. My sons did find some fun in a previous election by adding a strategically placed 'IS' to the 'LE PEN VITE' posters in our village.
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Post by bjd on Apr 10, 2012 14:03:25 GMT
Alan, you can vote in local elections, which are likely to have more impact on your daily life.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2012 17:24:04 GMT
Right now, the big debate is about the media giving out election results before the official time. All of the polling stations throughout France close at 6pm, but in the big cities they are open until 8pm. The moment a polling station closes, the vote counting begins, and it has become impossible with modern technology for the results not to be leaked. On top of that, there are unofficial exit polls which also glean information on what the people just did inside.
The law says that no results can be given before 8pm, but Belgian and Swiss media are absolutely thrilled to break this rule which obviously does not apply to them. Also, since the last elections 5 years ago, Twitter has become a major player, and there will be no stopping the tweets.
So once again, the French authorities will be fighting a losing battle, and this is certain to be the last time that the current rules are still in use. It has been suggested that all polling stations close at the same time, but this won't stop exit polls. And even if the police are there to prevent exit polling, voters will be recruited on the internet....
France is going to have to move to internet and postal voting one of these days, but they are still stupidly resisting it. If we can all file our tax returns on the internet and it is considered to be secure, why wouldn't voting be secure?
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Post by hwinpp on Apr 12, 2012 8:24:46 GMT
Why does Cohn- Bendit only run in the Euro elections and not in the national ones?
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Post by bjd on Apr 12, 2012 9:03:55 GMT
HW -- can you imagine the French saying, "But he's German!" and the Germans saying, "But he's French!".
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 9:11:37 GMT
Cohn-Bendit, even though he was born in France, is not a French citizen. He could probably become one in a week if he decided to do so, as was mentioned when a lot of the Greens were pushing for him to be the candidate for the presidency.
After all, when he led the Green list for the European elections, the Greens got 16.28% of the national vote, which was a totally historic figure. The Greens even came in first in most of Paris -- 33% of the vote in my arrondissement, compared to 17% for the Socialists (and yet we re-elect our Socialist parliamentary representative each time with about 65% of the vote).
Cohn-Bendit is extremely charismatic because he does not speak the language of politicians.
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Post by hwinpp on Apr 12, 2012 9:57:17 GMT
I thought he had French citizenship. Isn't he in the Europarliament for France?
In Germany most people think he has dual nationality (I do anyway ;D).
Even I like him for being a straight talker.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 10:46:26 GMT
The wiki about him says this:
Cohn-Bendit was born in Montauban, France, to a German-Jewish father and a French-Jewish mother who had fled Nazism in 1933. He spent his childhood in Montauban. He moved to Germany in 1958, where his father had been a lawyer since the end of the war. He attended the Odenwaldschule in Heppenheim near Frankfurt, a secondary school for children of the upper middle class. Being officially stateless at birth, when he reached the age of 14 he chose German citizenship, in order to avoid conscription.
Anyway, for the first European election, he represented France for 5 years, in the next election he was on the German lists, and the last time he was back on the French lists.
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Post by hwinpp on Apr 12, 2012 10:51:14 GMT
That's cleared up then.
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Post by bjd on Apr 12, 2012 11:13:22 GMT
Being officially stateless at birth, when he reached the age of 14 he chose German citizenship, in order to avoid conscription.I thought Germany still had conscription? At least it surely did when Cohn-Bendit was about 20. He doesn't have a Montauban accent in French!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 13:07:52 GMT
No, he definitely has a Parisian accent!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 18:44:57 GMT
I think some of you might find it interesting to see what a French political commercial looks like. These are not actually "commercials" but official campaign clips, which are shown at specific times on the public television stations -- every candidate gets exactly the same 90 seconds and the same number of broadcasts. For a start, here are three candidates who will get less than 5% of the vote. Obviously, they are in French but since Mitterrand started subtitling all of his campaign messages in 1981 for the hearing impaired, the subtitles make the messages quite clear. Some of the broadcasts are also accompanied by audio description for the visually impaired.
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Post by hwinpp on Apr 13, 2012 4:25:05 GMT
Being officially stateless at birth, when he reached the age of 14 he chose German citizenship, in order to avoid conscription.I thought Germany still had conscription? At least it surely did when Cohn-Bendit was about 20. He doesn't have a Montauban accent in French! Yes, we had conscription until last year. Not sure when it started though. Maybe it was shorter in Germany? For a long time it was just 15 months. Our 'Wahlwerbung', election advertisements, are exactly the same. Each party gets the same amount of time, usually 2 minutes after the 8pm news. Not sure if we have debates. Don't remember watching any.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2012 4:28:39 GMT
But there were also other exceptions, no? Residents of West Berlin were exempted, I think, so perhaps also "Jewish refugees"?
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Post by hwinpp on Apr 13, 2012 4:33:25 GMT
Ahhh, yes. West Berliners were excempt, not sure about Jewish refugees. Maybe it was also just easier to do an objection in Germany than in France.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2012 6:10:54 GMT
Yes, I think that "conscientious objection" was very well accepted in Germany but almost impossible to validate in France (besides having much worse conditions -- I think the civil service time was double the military service time, for example).
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Post by hwinpp on Apr 13, 2012 8:32:04 GMT
Really. In Germany it was the same. In my graduation class there were about 120, so lets say 60 boys.
Three volunteered (one of them was me), the vast majority objected.
I think the social services are having big problems finding people to replace all those objectors.
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