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Post by nautiker on Mar 11, 2013 22:42:05 GMT
This thread should have been started weeks ago already, so there would have been ample opportunity discussing the upcoming Cheltenham meeting - hope you spot this in time, jack, this thread is dedicated to us - everybody else is welcome to join, of course.
If there's one thing I like about Cheltenham, it's how nonchalantly they burn-off one excellent race after the other: 1st race - Supreme Novice hurdle, 2nd race - Arkle chase and so on...
I'd love to do a sweepstakes on the Gold Cup, alas I doubt we'd be plenty enough - so what about a tipping game? a fictional 10E each-way in every graded race at starting price (as published in the racingpost)?
my selections for Tuesday:
1:30 Champagne Fever (over My Tent or Yours) 2:05 Simonsig (not a very daring choice, yet he's one of my TTF anyway) 2:40 Golden Chieftain (because there's a German element) 3:20 Hurricane Fly (but one is really spoilt for choices here) 4:00 handicap 4:40 Que Vega (obviously, yet would have loved to see Annie Power here - understand she's headed for Punchestown) 5:15 listed
After Friday, looking forward to exchanging past and future racing topics (the debatable International Classifications reorg, the upcoming flat season with those many blanks to fill, Longchamp's new grandstand by Perrault; think we can safely ignore Dubai, though...)
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Post by nautiker on Mar 13, 2013 9:38:00 GMT
until jack drops by, this will remain somewhat a monologue. always a pity: excelling when it doesn't count. cannot recall ever picking five winners (priced up to 28-1...) in a single meeting, too bad yesterday's postscript: I guess the Irish are not too sad having raided only three of the four main races (btw, I wonder whether the Pope's conclave has a notable effect on betting turnover in Ireland...) Champagne Fever in great style, Simonsig not as predominant as expected but still good. Golden Chieftain a marvellous surprise - the fashion of his win not too great for his handicap, though. Hurricane Fly I haven't watched yet (Racingpost meesing up their vid library), Que Vega thrilling finish... my selections for today: 1:30 class 22:05 Minsk (though Pont Alexandre has a German element and is most likely to win) 2:40 Boston Bob (easy choice, he's one of my TTF, too) 3:20 Sprinter Sacre (no way he's going to be beaten, courteous by the others for turning up as extras) 4:00 Cash and Go (just because he's German bred, usually would avoid this type of race for betting) 4:40 McVicar (no real chance, but he's a horse I've seen in Kempton last autumn) 5:15 Vieux Lion Rouge (again German background) after those massive fictional wins yesterday, fortunately I can afford backing some outsiders today
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Post by nautiker on Mar 14, 2013 12:10:00 GMT
still no jack to be seen, but now that I started, I have to go through with it...
Jack, what’s up with the Irish? Only half of the feature races of day two bagged… For me, on the other hand, it was a more familiar situation compared to opening day :-(
Yesterday’s review: Minsk overchallenged, Pont Alexandre disappointing (Walsh’s mistake?) – The New One brave, nice touch he’s coming from a smaller stable. Boston Bob looked like a sharp blade in the RSA when he fell at the last – too bad, glad he seems to be all right. Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother just overwhelming, doubt Sizing Europe would have been much closer even without the bumper. Coral Cup – well, Medinas (German bred) would have been my next choice, yet you always know that after a race. Rest of the card – sod it, not even in the frame :-)
Today: 1:30 Texas Jack (Dynaste’s team selected this race so very carefully for him, yet I’m not convinced he cannot be beaten, I’ll keep an eye on Marito as well) 2:05 listed (I’ll look out for Fair Along and Catch Me, though) 2:40 Riverside Theatre (very difficult race: lots of horses with great form, yet everybody with a small question mark somewhere; I’ll stick to my last year’s choice, despite his low performance in the King George) 3:20 Solwhit (pure attachement, which is always a bad counsellor…; should have been Big Buck’s race, well, nice the other ones get some limelight for a change...) 4:00 Vino Griego (desperate choice) 4:40 handicap 5:15 cross country chase
one more day to go…
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Post by mossie on Mar 14, 2013 19:27:14 GMT
I know what a fascination racing can be, but gambling adds the spice. Let me tell you two gamblers stories. First, I had an asphalt plant foreman who came from a village close to Newmarket and he had a friend working in a stables there. My foreman was a very keen student of racing form and would have a bet occasionally. A nag at odds greater than 3 to 1 was considered a rank outsider and his bets came home about 2 times out of 3 Second When I lived in lodgings while working at Heathrow in 1949-50, one of the lads there was an avid gambler and attended every horse and dog race he could. Almost invariably I would find him lying disconsolately on his bed about Tues or Wednesday, flat broke and waiting for payday. The rotten bookies had won again One Saturday afternoon however I was having tea with the landlady after my shift, when me laddo came bounding in. "I've won 50 quid" he said. "Don't believe you" said the landlady. At that he threw a bundle of tatty notes across the table. £50 would take me about 3 months to earn then Come Wednesday he was flat broke again ;D ;D Taught me a lesson.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 14, 2013 23:34:31 GMT
My foreman was a very keen student of racing form and would have a bet occasionally. A nag at odds greater than 3 to 1 was considered a rank outsider and his bets came home about 2 times out of 3 Hi Mossie, sounds like inside information, alright...in my experience, most 'job horses' go off somewhere between 6/4 and 3/1...these are the ones the professionals like to get stuck into, usually with insider knowledge to hand...even if every second one gets turned over, they will still win in the long run, if disciplined enough... When I lived in lodgings while working at Heathrow in 1949-50, one of the lads there was an avid gambler and attended every horse and dog race he could. Almost invariably I would find him lying disconsolately on his bed about Tues or Wednesday, flat broke and waiting for payday. The rotten bookies had won again One Saturday afternoon however I was having tea with the landlady after my shift, when me laddo came bounding in. "I've won 50 quid" he said. "Don't believe you" said the landlady. At that he threw a bundle of tatty notes across the table. £50 would take me about 3 months to earn then Come Wednesday he was flat broke again ;D ;D Taught me a lesson. Correct again...these are the guys that keep the bookies in the style they are accustomed to and the likes of the Paddy Power Bookmakers share-price sky-high...
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 15, 2013 0:07:33 GMT
Hi Nautiker, and thanks for starting this thread...no doubt it will be a forum for hot debate for the remainder of the year... And some great tipping here as well!...Golden Chieftain jumped off the page for me as he came in at 28/1, if I'm not wrong...but not a graded race so maybe you're disqualified by your own rule? But some great winners there like Champagne Fever with another Ruby masterclass...like yourself, I doubted My Tent Or Yours in this open-class company...hang on, I've just checked again and they ALL won!...all 5 on Tuesday!...did you back these?...imagine what a Yankee would have paid?!...there again , maybe better if you don't!! Hurricane Fly proved himself one of the all-time greats, in my opinion...remember he missed 2009 and 2010 so he could have won 3/4 of these...also, he doesn't like Cheltenham I believe, and is much better at home in Ireland...I've seen him twice now (beating your friend Solwhit both times!) and am convinced he's as good as Istabraq, if not better... Sprinter Sacre is potentially the greatest 2 miler ever and looking definitely like the best since Flyingbolt...and great to see Solwhit getting his reward although I have a soft spot for gallant Bog Warrior...like First Lieutenant earlier, his trainer would like to see him in the Gold Cup but Mr Ryanair is as pig-headed about horses as he is about airlines so he's hurdling for now... My own bets so far this week... E/W Rock on Ruby - 2nd 5/1 Quevega - WON 8/11 E/W Carlito Brigante - Unpl 16/1 E/W Sizing Europe - 2nd 5/1 E/W First Lieutenant - 2nd 5/2 E/W Hunt Ball - 4th 17/2 Tomorrow I have...E/W on Tennis Cap (ante-post @ 14/1) and E/W At Fishers Cross (11/4) I won't be having a bet on The Gold Cup as I had already backed Flemenstar ante-post and my other fancy Last Instalment also is injured...a fascinating race in store and I like the idea of Captain Chris as a lively outsider but don't intend to wager...unless Tennis Cap wins, of course, when confidence/delusion can take over...)) After 6 bets, I'm almost exactly level and as you can probably guess from the each-way nature of the bets, just doing it for fun...but every horse I backed ran well including Carlito Brigante who was effectively brought to a standstill by a faller... Hoping Our Conor wins for Dessie Hughes who's had some great runners this week but no winners, and also Salsify who typifies what it's all about for small owners in Ireland... Not a bad week for us here in Ireland, at all, despite your teasing...))
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Post by bjd on Mar 15, 2013 7:51:07 GMT
I know nothing about horse-racing (in fact I had to read the first post closely to understand that's what you were talking about), but do guys actually go to the track or do you bet in a shop or however it's done?
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Post by nautiker on Mar 15, 2013 13:27:58 GMT
Hi mossie, good you’re dropping by, great anecdotes you’re sharing! Like jack (and you I presume), I agree one would need to be very disciplined to avoid running into the red - and since I’m not, I’m only betting at meetings I attend in person and always just small wagers: Happy when the winnings can reimburse for admission and other expenses, not too sad when they don’t. Not dedicated to betting in every race, yet always picking/following horses just for the involvement. Since betting unfortuantely is a pillar in the financing of racing (even more so over here than in the UK), I stupidly feel I even have a slight obligation for some betting, too Hi jack, nice you made it here after all… Golden Chieftain’s race was a Grade 3, so I’m within limits ;D – yet as pointed out above, it was all just pencil and paper, I guess if I had played a Yankee (and therefore assuming I would then play them regularly), I assume I would have marginally reduced a debt from those years past now. Your horses seem to be doing fine, though I wonder why you thought Sizing Europe had a chance – another soft spot of yours (I recall you were quite content with his performances last season)? I bet Que Vega made it rather uneasy for you, fortunately great speed! One really is spoilt for choices in the Gold Cup, wise move to keep your fingers from the race since your fancy is out – as you can see, I haven’t forgotten about TGB’s last years’s performance and hope for a repeat! Hi bjd, welcome tothe world of racing. As outlined above, personally I’m more into the spectator’s aspect of this sport, the web however is just great for keeping up with racing throughout the world, which is why I started this thread. I pick horses for joy, since races are IMO even more thrilling to watch when you can cheer or swear, with or without money backed. Betting indeed is a key factor of this sport, as it takes a huge chunk of its financing from it. The biggest part nowadays is being gambled online, on course betting is heavily declining. The only countries I know betting shops to play a considerable role are the UK and Ireland, plus France (PMU), in Germany they’re almost inexistant. I was a bit puzzled you had difficulties understanding what this thread was about: As an avid racegoer, I can affirm to you that there’s only one sport called racing, the other sports are called athletics, trotting and formula 1 – no room for any misunderstandings here. Back to the races; review: So I was right, Dynaste wasn’t invincible – didn’t help me much, though. And Riverside Theatre still not back in form, yet Cue Card a rightful winner. First Lieutenant was my sis’ fancy, too: ‘always strong, unfortunately there always seems to be somene still stronger – perhaps not this time?’ were her words before the race - sorry sis :-) I’m naturally bouncing with joy about Solwhit, not too often that horses I know both parents of win in Cheltenham… Vino Griego decent runner-up, yet since I picked him just randomly, it’s nothing I get elated about. Sad about the loss of Mathui, worried about the injured jockeys. Bookies are, I understand, very very slightly relaxing – not that I care. Irish still take 50% of the big points home – well done. Last Day (just in time) 1:30 Diakali (I like greys – and being trained by Mullins isn’t necessarily bad, either) 2:05 Midnight Game (seems it's my-Mullins-or-yours here, jack; otherwise Cotton Mill would be next in line for me) 2:40 At Fishers Cross (so this time we're sharing a nag, jack; apart from that, I’m not too involved in this race) 3:20 The Giant Bolster (because of last year and because after yesterdays’s races prooved being emotionally involved can sometimes be a good thing anyway; otherwise I’d pick Silviniaco Conti) 4:00 class 24:40 class 25:15 Viva Colonia (once trained in Cologne) phew, that was it, keeping hooves crossed everybody returns safely!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 18:12:45 GMT
I have never had any interest in this myself, but during the year that my brother and I spent in France with our grandparents (he was 13, I was 10), he became addicted to the racing section of the newspaper and carefully selected horses every day. If he had actually been able to bet, he would have definitely come out ahead.
In the family, there was the obligatory tiercé every Sunday, where you would bet on 3 horses and win a considerable sum if they were in the right order and a consolation prize out of order. Most of us played at random and sometimes won. (Wasn't there a study once that showed that monkeys picking horses won as often as human beings?). In modern times, there are infinite betting possibilities of course (quarté, quinté -- etc. plus all sorts of 2 horse deals), but I have not bet on horses since the brief period that my parents lived in France (until 1981) and no longer pay much attention to them.
However, this thread having brought it to my attention again, maybe I will give it a try on the internet before long.
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 16, 2013 0:22:13 GMT
Hi jack, nice you made it here after all… Golden Chieftain’s race was a Grade 3, so I’m within limits ;D I wonder why you thought Sizing Europe had a chance – another soft spot of yours (I recall you were quite content with his performances last season)? – as you can see, I haven’t forgotten about TGB’s last years’s performance and hope for a repeat! Vino Griego decent runner-up, yet since I picked him just randomly, it’s nothing I get elated about. phew, that was it, keeping hooves crossed everybody returns safely! Hi Nautiker...not for the first time you've caught me out with superior knowledge about the intricacies of racing!...but we Irish regard the handicaps as second-class fare, of course, so I'm showing a certain bias there, no doubt...)) re Sizing Europe...well, I've backed him every year at CH and he's done me proud in the past, winning the Arkle at 6/1 and the Champion Chase at 10/1...beaten controversially last year and broke down in the Champion Hurdle when going like a winner 5 years ago?...a super genuine horse with a great engine who hasn't got the credit he deserves, I believe...I couldn't see him being worse than 3rd as I backed ante-post, so for me it was a free bet in case SS slipped up... TGB ran another great race but the winner is very good indeed...imagine Barry Geraghty sold him for €20,000!...he earned a lot more for steering him around today for less than 10 minutes...)) I was wondering what you meant about Vino Griego being a 'desperate' bet as he was the one I feared in that race yesterday...once again, he ran an excellent race at CH... So...another great festival with 2 worthy new champions in Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth and 2 old favs, Hurricane Fly and Solwhit, writing their names in the record books... I shall sign off with the expectation of having my last bet of the week at Uttoxeter tomorrow on Vino Griego's stable mate, Well Refreshed (E/W @ 7/2), and can only echo Barry Geraghty's touching words about JT Mc Namara... A wonderful man and jockey, and all who take an interest in the sport here in Ireland are thinking of him and praying he will make a full recovery...
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Post by nautiker on Mar 16, 2013 23:09:57 GMT
you've caught me out with superior knowledge about the intricacies of racing! no, no! if you want my exact train of thought on that race, it went something like this: 'well, so we'll be doing graded races only... supreme novice hurdle, ok... arkle chase, check... oh, a handicap with 24runners, glad I can give that one a miss... wait - sod it, it's a grade 3!... what shall I do now, study form?... haha, 'Golden Chieftain' - wonder whether he's sired from Highland Chieftain... no, but his dam is... hey, it's Golden Flower, she was a smart chaser, I've seen her ages ago here at home... great, that's my choice then... pity, rank outsider... doesn't matter, I can only do wrong in this race anyway...' - this gives a pretty good insight on my way of picking horses and explains a lot about my style of betting as described above ;D (BTW, similar approach applied to my picking of Vino Griego, though horses with 'typos' always make me cringe...) I'm content with TGB's performance. for a couple of moments it looked as if he could do even better, anyway he has prooved he belonged in that race. great performance by Bob's Worth, not sure Silviniaco Conti would have stood up to him, but possibly he'll further improve the next season. tcha, Geraghty claims he has no regrets selling Bob's Worth - I consider this point of view quite classy on its own... your ante-posts (though you know my attitude towards these, e.g. what happened to Well Refreshed?) should have paid off decently - kudos. too bad Tennis Cap couldn't quite follow - so close! Our Connor and Salsify among the most impressive winners of the meeting, the Irish rightfully take home the majority of races. as regards JT Mc Namara, I understand we'll have to wait until Tuesday before we can expect further news. it's a sad part of the game, it has happened before, it will happen again. tiniest solace: at least there's the Injured Jockeys Fund - there's nothing similar over here... final remark: once again, the supremacy of the Cheltenham meeting was as delightful as intimidating - what a treat, yet the whole NH scene is really much too focused on these four days in March! @kerouac, there once was an equivalent to the Tiercé in Germany, yet the Germans preference for lottery and the rise of (state) football betting gave it the deathblow. the French have been more careful, turning their racing industry into one of the soundest (or even the soundest?) of the world. BTW, I think it was monkeys and shares, not sure whether that holds actually much truth, though...
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 20, 2013 2:11:26 GMT
I'm content with TGB's performance. for a couple of moments it looked as if he could do even better, anyway he has prooved he belonged in that race. great performance by Bob's Worth, not sure Silviniaco Conti would have stood up to him, but possibly he'll further improve the next season. tcha, Geraghty claims he has no regrets selling Bob's Worth - I consider this point of view quite classy on its own... Hi Nautiker...yes, it was a fine race...full marks to Geraghty but I know that some here in Ireland were dismayed that AP McCoy was on Sir Des Champs rather than young Cooper or my own choice, Paul Townend... your ante-posts (though you know my attitude towards these, e.g. what happened to Well Refreshed?) should have paid off decently - kudos. too bad Tennis Cap couldn't quite follow - so close! Our Connor and Salsify among the most impressive winners of the meeting, the Irish rightfully take home the majority of races. Just to let you know, there were great deals here in Ireland - including money-back, ante-post bets - so I lost nothing on Well-Refreshed who I backed the night before at 'guaranteed early price'...which means if he pulls out I get my money back and if the price is bigger (eg, 5/1 instead of 7/2), I would have got the bigger price! final remark: once again, the supremacy of the Cheltenham meeting was as delightful as intimidating - what a treat, yet the whole NH scene is really much too focused on these four days in March! Totally agree with you...particularly here in Ireland where the season is dominated by an event in another country...there are some nice horses and owners here who don't bother with it and I tend to back them in January and February when others are being primed for CH and not at their best...
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Post by nautiker on Mar 20, 2013 16:09:57 GMT
so, still no news from Mc Namara - not a good sign I fear the entangled paths of ante-post betting will remain a mystery to me - glad you enjoy it, though btw, did I tell you that in Krefeld last autumn I had the pleasure to witness the inauguration of Germany's new champion steeplechasing jockey? as you know, jump season closes with the turf season in November, and it was a thrilling finish: since the title is awarded on wins alone, dead-heats are possible. last year, we had two jockeys at draw before the last race and one jockey one win behind. had he won, there would have been a triple-champion - however in the end Cevin Chan scored to become (single) champion. now do you want to guess how many wins it nowaydays takes to become leading steeplchasing jockey in Germany? click on the 'spoiler' -> 6 ;D p.s. if I understand correctly, that bloke who bought LP is shareholder in Churchill Downs, too - wonder whether I should take this as a good sign...
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 21, 2013 1:55:26 GMT
so, still no news from Mc Namara - not a good sign now do you want to guess how many wins it nowaydays takes to become leading steeplchasing jockey in Germany? click on the 'spoiler' -> p.s. if I understand correctly, that bloke who bought LP is shareholder in Churchill Downs, too - wonder whether I should take this as a good sign... The news today from Bristol is still the same for JT...still in that induced coma so many Irish fingers remain crossed... Actually, for some reason, I thought the winning SC jockey in Germany rode 19 winners...maybe I was confusing the total amount of 'chases run in the country...either way, it's pitifully small! Let's wait and see with the new owner but at least he seems to be a sportsman...
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Post by nautiker on Mar 22, 2013 14:05:46 GMT
no brain damage, well that's a spark of hope, however the otherwise silence the rest of the week doesn't convince me the lookout is anything bright...
please tell me where you found those statistics - even our official board, the DVR, no longer bothers putting them online, so I'd be curious for a source of information (I guess 19 could be the no. of his mounts - which would likely be close to the overall number of SC races run anyway...)
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Post by nautiker on Mar 24, 2013 11:50:57 GMT
Danedream is preggers by Frankel - hooray! (I'm always wary with 'celebrity' offspring, though, IMO often better when the dam just has a bit of black type...)
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Post by waterhazardjack on Mar 26, 2013 0:55:47 GMT
Danedream is preggers by Frankel - hooray! (I'm always wary with 'celebrity' offspring, though, IMO often better when the dam just has a bit of black type...) Not for the first time, Nautiker, you beat me with the news! And I agree with you...reading today about Black Caviar's impending tryst with the 'other Frankie', I can't help but feel the actualite may fall far short of the expectation... According to the radio today, JT seems to be moving into a safer general zone but I didn't hear the specifics... I'm not sure where I heard those German Steeplechase stats but it could only be the Racing Post or even yourself in one of your missives last year?...maybe you told me there were only 19 races run over obstacles last year?... I'll check TT PMs when I get a chance...
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Post by nautiker on Mar 26, 2013 13:08:08 GMT
yes, the RP wrote they might even be able to get him to Ireland soon... and yes, maybe I once wrote there'd been 19 chases in Germany - must have been awful long ago, though, since with no chases anywhere near where I live, I'd written off steeplechasing completely. I think there are similarities between human celeb and horse celeb offspring: both will always be measured against their parents, both will almost always loose out to them - a pity
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Post by nautiker on Mar 30, 2013 10:25:49 GMT
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 3, 2013 23:49:27 GMT
Yes, Nautiker, that's where he's at now.
There was a synthesis of emotions at Fairyhouse on Monday when young Jane Mangan, who you may recall got ejected from the saddle when just about to win the Foxhunter's at Cheltenham, won the Champion Bumper on Michael O'Leary's horse, thus negating the offer of €200,000 he had made to buy the winner...so he donated the same amount to JT McNamara and The Injured jockey's Fund...
Not a bad result, at all...
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 5, 2013 1:02:56 GMT
Not a bad result, at all... Speaking of which - and, erm, cannibalising my own post - kicked off this year's Aintree festival with 2 wagers... E/W First Lieutenant - Won @ 7/2 E/W The New One - 2nd at 3/1 (early price) In keeping with my descent into out and out pedantry, I've been keeping a record of all my bets this year and arrived at today almost exactly level...so today's winnings will pay for the next 2 days... Tomorrow I have... E/W Vino Griego @ 7/1 E/W Flemenstar @ 6/1 VG you know, of course, and is very gallant around Cheltenham for Gary Moore...up in class and I don't like each-way in less than 8 runners but at this price worth a tilt, I believe...this time last year, I thought Flemenstar ws the best Irish prospect since Carvill's Hill...now, with illness and changed tactics recently, I don't know what to think...but, if at his best, and allowed to bowl along as of old, anything is possible, despite the presence of Sprinter Sacre... On Saturday, I 'll be going... E/W Chicago Grey E/W Rare Bob Both trainers in excellent form and I was at Navan when Chicago Grey bolted up which opened my eyes as I've never been a big fan of his - he's a short price though...Rare Bob has been laid out for this by his shrewd trainer so worth a go at 20/1 or so...also, Katie Walsh must have a great chance of history on Seabass, I'd say, although my sister tells me she lost her horse Battlefront today... Which convinces me further that lowering the National fences is the wrong way to go as they are going much quicker now and thus more dangerous... Over to you, Nautiker...
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Post by nautiker on Apr 5, 2013 10:45:06 GMT
hi jack, for some reason I tend to overlook that the Aintree meeting has more to offer besides the National, so I missed yesterday completely, great to see all those big names again – and congrats to your picks! I very much enjoyed seeing First Lieutenant came first, since he really deserved it for a long time now. Menorah a nice surprise and Silviniaco Conti still decent – hadn’t he blundered, this might have been another 2nd place for FL... TGB obviously didn’t have a good day I’ve always had a good opinion about Thousand Stars, so I’m happy he ran a good race. Same goes for Kie, who’s some German roots and who’s been looking promsing throughout the season without really making headlines. today’s races look great, but rather uninspiring to me for betting, if at all I’d share your Vino Griego and perhaps At Fisher’s Cross, though both rather for sentimental reasons (‘cos I picked them for Cheltenham)… for tomorrow, I’m still undecided. Sire de Grugy in the Novices Chase (since I saw him win in Kempton), but can Solwhit repeat his performance in the Hurdle? what does my karma say? perhaps better to sit back and just enjoy. as for the National, I don’t think I’m going to take part in this race - hope all get through well! likely you’ve already seen this, yet still an interesting read: www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/mar/02/grand-national-plastic-aintree-safety - sounds convincing, I’m all in favour interesting too: www.guardian.co.uk/sport/shortcuts/2013/apr/02/do-you-think-grand-national-cruel - though I admit the statistical comparison is somewhat flawed, it makes me wonder. by now I’m hesitant to buy the easy explanations for casualties, neither ‘too many horses’ nor ‘we mustn’t make it too quick’ will really do justice... btw, I understand Battlefront died after a collapse, so I look at this incident from a different angle. I saw there’s a specific fund for McNamara – is this typical? I thought it usually all goes through the Injured Jockeys Fund? glad the Dubai World Cup is over (and did I tell you that Animal Kingdom has a German mum?) – the indicator that now (i.e. afterwards) it’s kick-off for the ‘real’ flat-season. next week there’s a 1000 Guineas trial I’m hoping to attend – maybe I’ll do a photo essay…
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Post by waterhazardjack on Apr 9, 2013 1:26:42 GMT
Hi Nautiker, surprised you've never got into Aintree as it's a great meeting, in my opinion...I've always loved the 2 courses there and although very flat compared to Cheltenham, the speed of the Mildmay course and then the famous National fences make for a thrilling spectacle, I believe...
After Vino Griego and Flemenstar went down, I backed At Fisher's Cross but put the winnings on Molly's A Diva so no advance there...but Rare Bob's 5th in the big race was enough to put me back into profit for the meeting...great to see Solwhit finally getting his just reward and putting the doubters away...some of the 'experts' in the UK maintain that Hurricane Fly has been gadding around Ireland for years and beating nothing of note...but after the last month, I think we can say that we know better now...
Have to say I was doubtful about the changes to the race and fences as making the horses go faster is more dangerous, in my opinion...but it went off great and all the word is positive, so good luck so far...Sue and Harvey Smyth are very popular NH people so it was great result for the sport...
re Injured Jockey Fund...that's a good question...I think O'Leary initially indicated the money was all going to McNamara but after consulting with the authorities, the money will now be channeled through the IJF...
Last word has to go to Sprinter Sacre who just keeps going up higher and higher in public esteem...now rated on a par with Flyingbolt with only Arkle above this...and he may be coming to Punchestown which will be treat for Irish racegoers, if it goes ahead...
We are truly living through a Golden Age of Flat and NH...don't you agree???
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Post by nautiker on Apr 21, 2013 19:53:37 GMT
hi jack, sorry for the delay, as regards Aintree meeting, don't forget when & where I grew up - for the papers over here racing abroad was always just about horses dying in the National and women with oversize hats in Ascot, in TV the topic didn't exist at all. dedicated racing papers were expensive and sometimes hard to get hold of, we usually just bought them for the meetings we were going to attend. after a while we'd grown accustomed to the 'winter break' and never felt we were lacking anything, so there was no need to look further. apart from Dick Francis' novels and a couple of minor contacts, it's only until a short time ago that I've picked up on NH, and I blame it on the internet making the stuff so easily accessible... as regards the race itself, I'm a) very happy all went well and b) glad you were able to cash in. - bookies should be happy, too. I'm a bit wary, though, since everybody involved is so determined to stress the positive outcome, I'd say we should wait a bit more to give the race the full clearance! supporting programme: obviously delighted about Solwhit, slightly disappointed about Sire de Grugy, who seems to have had a bad race. bad luck, too, for Vino Griego and Flemenstar - who'll sadly miss Punchestown, too... btw, given the great reviews and cards, I could actually consider a trip over there for next year - or is it too crazy? any idea? a golden age? how does one really measure this? racing is probably the only sport trying to establish a comparison across the decades in order to keep track on this - and keeping an eye on the classifications alone, it's great to see handicappers considering racing at a new peak right now with horses like Frankel, Black Caviar, Sprinter Sacre etc. certainly setting the most impressive yardsticks imaginable - so yes, I believe this is a great era. at the same time, as you already know, I have to witness the permanent decline here in Germany*, thus unless something really extraordinary happens, the past will always look brighter to me we had a nice trial last weekend, I'll do a report soon - the closure of the track in Cologne last autumn however makes for lot of surprises right now, since with many runners lacking a conclusive performance record, the number of 'dark' horses is unusually high... *e.g. this weekend we had an established German pattern horse running in a weight-for-age in Paray-le-Monial (you'll need to look up that place...) - obviously much more lucrative than running anywhere 'at home'!
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Post by nautiker on Apr 30, 2013 10:38:43 GMT
hi jack, thanks for your pm (which I didn't spot until a couple of days ago - this feature is a bit unobstrusive). of course I meant Punchestown! I freely admit that as much as I have been enjoying the coverage (Sprinter Sacre, Sir des Champs, Que Vega, Hurricane Fly etc. - great sport!) my mind has now predominantly drifted back to the flat. Pastorius won the Ganay - a nice surprise, didn't expect such a good show. meanwhile, German Derby entry Chopin has been sold to Sheikh Al Thani (Qatar) and switched to the Epsom classic instead - another loss (though I understand for the time being he remains in Germany). worse: popular and admired jockey Terence Hellier (a Brit, yet born in Cologne, son of tainer Bruce Hellier) announced his immediate retirement last week - he's had weight problems throughout his career, however always managed to get back in the saddle - obviously he deemed it no longer worth the trouble he was one of the few real classy jockeys there were over here, our Kieren Fallon so to speak... regards
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Post by waterhazardjack on May 3, 2013 0:55:55 GMT
Hey Nautiker, no problem as I share your views about the camouflaging of PMs here...
re Punchestown...it is indeed a great bit of fun and well worth attending if you can make it, although this year's edition was definitely a vintage renewal...my last time there was in 2010 when the ash cloud crisis derailed my flight (terrible mixture of metaphors, I know!) to Poland and I jumped in the car to see Hurricane Fly defeat Solwhit in the Hurdle...if you're ever thinking of attending, goes without saying I'll give any help and advice I can and make a point of travelling myself to meet up...
Did you know the great Pricewise tipped Pastorius in the Ganay, in which he obliged at 7.3 to 1 on the PMU?...I didn't see it but it looked like the Hofers had it all figured out with young Steffi making the pace on Point Blank...looks like he's heading now to Singapore with the King George another mid-summer target...
Mention of the Ganay reminds me of a great valedictory article by Tony Morris recently in the Racing Post on Monsun...if I'm correct, yesterday's winner Estimate (owned by QE2) is his 99th winner in the pattern?...(and also a possible Gold Cup winner!)...and with Triple Threat, Ocavango, Maxios (Ganay runner-up), etc, to represent him this year, that figure should expand somewhat...not to mention grandsons Pastorius and Don Bosco, of course...
We're getting terrific updates these days in RP on German racing and breeding and hence I knew of Woehler's colt being aimed at Epsom and Hillier's retirement...another fine article today on the significance of Sayonara and Urban Sea, among others...
And so...to Newmarket for the real start of the season...I'm a big admirer of Jim Bolger (for many racing and non-racing reasons) and hope that Dawn Approach clinches a first 2,000 Guineas for him...it's a mark of his independence and stature that Sheikh Mohammed leaves the colt with him after purchase - and maybe no harm after recent events!...but Toronado and Garswood were very impressive in their trials...I expect DA to be a better price on Saturday so may have a small bet at 7/4 or better, if available...(my expectation is a lot of money for Toronado)...but it looks like a high-quality renewal...
In the 200th running of the 1,000, I thought Hot Snap was very impressive in the Nell Gwyn Stakes but it's hard to know what that race was really like...however, HC has won this race 6 times and will take a lot of beating, although there are many dark fillies scattered through the field...
All will be revealed in a day or two!
PS...I see your old favourite Snow Fairy returned to UK after wintering in a field over here...hopefully she's in better form than the est of us Irish after enduring such a miserable season...))
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Post by htmb on May 3, 2013 1:23:11 GMT
Hey, guys, there are ways to get notice of PM's here. Bixa can direct you to the instructions. I get a pop up message on this page, as well as a notice sent to my email account any time I get a PM.
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Post by waterhazardjack on May 4, 2013 3:30:21 GMT
Hey, guys, there are ways to get notice of PM's here. Bixa can direct you to the instructions. I get a pop up message on this page, as well as a notice sent to my email account any time I get a PM. Thanks, htmb, I'm sure you're right. My trouble is that I parachuted in here as a consequence of the meltdown over at TT and have never really applied myself to figuring out how to do much apart from posting, occasionally. One of these nights, I'll put the head down and work it all out, hopefully...
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Post by nautiker on May 4, 2013 10:35:45 GMT
hi htmb, thanks for the remark! just like jack, I'm a bit slow with the features on here - and I admit that even at LP I didn't spot my first pm until after a couple of days, too ;D
jack, I guess one would commute from Dublin to Punchestown? or would there be an interesting yet budget friendly alternative? I just gave it another thought though and recall that I might be moving that time of the year next year (only short distance though) however, so I fear it's either 2015 or another meeting instead (Champion Stakes? Irish Oaks?)...
as much as I appreciate those reports, I can only reiterate: Monsun was born in 1990, he's dead now and we're left to enjoy his progeny, there's no indicator German racing ever will return to these heights...
looking forward to the Guineas; Kentuckey Derby only gets a sideglance: more relevant than Dubai, yet all the same almost a different world...
regards
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Post by waterhazardjack on May 30, 2013 0:10:29 GMT
I was looking forward to posting a comprehensive review of this week's Derby and Oaks at Epsom, now that all the preliminaries have been concluded...unfortunately I'm having some internet connection problems so have to keep it short, if indeed it comes out at all...
The Oaks is wide open with many unguessable elements but I think it's safe to say Secret Gesture is a worthy favourite after her scintillating performance at Lingfield so I expect her to be a tough nut to crack...a lively outsider may be Aidan O'Brien's Snow Queen who has the profile of many of his runners in this race, who have improved radically on known form...his other filly Say is another very dark horse...all to play for...
I'm really hoping Dawn Approach stays and wins the Derby, out of respect for maverick trainer Jim Bolger...the fascinating aspect will be how Aidan O'Brien deploys his 5 or 6 entries...Magician is hardly crying out for a fast pace but Battle of Marengo probably needs a stiff test...previous Ballydoyle pace-making tactics have been counter-productive and even self-destructive so it will be very interesting...Chopin was exhilarating at Krefeld and the runner-up paid him a compliment in the German Guineas...Germany also has interest in Ocavango, a son of the great Monsun, and what a year it would be for that fine, lamented sire if this colt could win...
But it's a little crazy that there are only 3 English colts in the Derby, and only one of them a realistic contender...Ireland supply 10 and France and Germany one each...
Ladbrokes are currently offering money-back if your horse finishes second to Dawn Approach which is tempting me to have a fun bet on Chopin @ 10/1 but the Derby is usually no place for sentiment, with the first or second favourite obliging almost every year...so if one stuck to that formula and backed nothing else all year, you'd always be ahead!
Here's my guess-list...1. Dawn Approach 2. Magician 3. Chopin 4. Ocavango...despite the stamina doubt over DA, his sire and grand sire both won this race and I hope he does the same...roll on Saturday!!!
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