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Post by bixaorellana on Apr 18, 2017 16:00:54 GMT
My grasp of how the UK system works is vague at best, but I've read what I could today to try to figure out what's going on.
From what I can gather, May wants more control for herself and also to ram home the wishes of the entrenched elite and the xenophobes who keep them in power. But hey ~ that's just me.
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Post by cheerypeabrain on Apr 18, 2017 18:01:40 GMT
My grasp of how the UK system works is vague at best, but I've read what I could today to try to figure out what's going on. From what I can gather, May wants more control for herself and also to ram home the wishes of the entrenched elite and the xenophobes who keep them in power. But hey ~ that's just me. That's about it...I'm sinking into a pit of despair....we're all doomed.
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Post by bjd on Apr 18, 2017 18:03:02 GMT
That sounds about right. Plus the fact that the Labour Party is in disarray so it might lose some seats. I heard a British political scientist giving a comment today. Since Ukip is also in disarray, May is hoping some of its supporters will vote Conservative. He also mentioned that pro-Europeans (who voted against Brexit) might give more seats to the Liberal-Democrats, which is the only really pro-European party remaining (other than the Scots).
The great advantage of the British system (as copied in Canada and other places) is that election campaigns last only a few weeks. None of that interminable nonsense that goes on in the States.
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Post by bixaorellana on Apr 18, 2017 20:33:55 GMT
Thanks, ladies! From what I've gathered, the big fear is that any ground lost by Labor could stay lost for years. I sort of see your point about long campaigns, Bjd, and of course the amount spent in the US is obscene and stupid, but ... long campaigns theoretically allow more time for things to come to light, for unknown candidates to become known to the public, and for voters to gain enough knowledge to make informed decisions.
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Post by mickthecactus on Apr 18, 2017 20:39:27 GMT
Entrenched elite and xenophobes? That's a bit of a generalisation Bixa.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2017 20:45:34 GMT
Foreigners often have extreme views about the politics of other countries, Mick. When Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly in France in 1997, the plan blew up in his face and he stupidly lost the majority in the ensuing election. I kind of doubt that May will lose the election, but politics have become so unpredictable in the last 12 months or so that I am no longer ruling out anything.
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 18, 2017 20:58:04 GMT
I sort of see your point about long campaigns, Bjd, and of course the amount spent in the US is obscene and stupid, but ... long campaigns theoretically allow more time for things to come to light, for unknown candidates to become known to the public, and for voters to gain enough knowledge to make informed decisions. But a parliamentary system keeps all that going anyway outside the formal campaign period. Candidates and manifestoes don't suddenly materialise from nowhere. People who want to put themselves forward will have been getting themselves on to the approved lists and applying for vacant prospective candidacies all the time. Of course, if the opposition parties were planning their policy development and candidate selections on the assumption of an election in 2020 and don't have everything and everybody in place, she's possibly pulled a bit of a fast one. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by bixaorellana on Apr 19, 2017 6:09:48 GMT
Fair point, Patrick, in your first paragraph. As for the second paragraph, yeah -- that seems to be the consensus. Isn't calling this kind of snap election something she promised not to do? As far as I can see, from reading this article, there is a very clear danger of the anti-May vote being split, thus giving the election to the Conservatives. Yes? No? Sorry, Mick -- I just now saw your comment.* Okay, maybe a teensy bit of a generalization, but nothing that should surprise you greatly, knowing my thoughts on US politics. * Strange. Mick, Kerouac, & Patrick all posted at the same time, but I swear only Patrick's was showing when I started writing my response.
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Post by mickthecactus on Apr 19, 2017 7:20:52 GMT
I am of course neither......
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 19, 2017 7:35:46 GMT
there is a very clear danger of the anti-May vote being split, thus giving the election to the Conservatives. Yes? No? Well, yes, that has been a long-term structural pattern in this country for long periods of time - 13 years across the 50s and early 60s, 18 years of the 80s and 90s. One could see the Blair/Brown years as an aberration. The opinion polls suggest the Tories are in a very strong position, as the only party that at least looks like they know what they're doing (most of the time): but I still don't think there's going to be any sort of a landslide. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 19, 2017 7:47:44 GMT
Just another footnote on the point about candidate selection and so forth: one side-effect of the election that must have her laughing up her sleeve is that Labour have had to say their sitting MPs are automatically re-selected this time, rather than (as the left of the party has tried to institute for ages) automatically making them go through an open re-application and re-selection process every electoral cycle. That means that she has to forgo the satisfaction of watching local Labour parties tear themselves apart, for the satisfaction of freezing Labour's internal dissensions and carrying them forward into the next parliament. On the other hand, it may be better for Labour to get its disaster out of the way now, rather than in two years' time, and have the opportunity of a clear five years to pull themselves together (if they choose to take it). Not that that would have been much of a factor in her calculations, I suspect. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 19, 2017 11:29:02 GMT
Letter in this morning's Guardian: "A woman who always keeps her promises has called an election she promised not to, in order to obtain a mandate she says she already has, for a policy she said was a bad idea." My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by mickthecactus on Apr 19, 2017 12:50:07 GMT
Letter in this morning's Guardian: "A woman who always keeps her promises has called an election she promised not to, in order to obtain a mandate she says she already has, for a policy she said was a bad idea." My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam" I would expect nothing less from a Guardian reader. But in terms of balance you should quote something from the Mail.....
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Post by bixaorellana on Apr 19, 2017 18:49:50 GMT
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Post by mossie on Apr 19, 2017 19:53:38 GMT
This was my first take on the subject.
Saint Teresa has really put the cat amongst the pigeons, Brother Jeremy of Islington will cackle about insanely out of his rear as usual, while Tiny Tim will leap about like a demented Jack in the Box. Tim will do best, most likely trebling or quadrupling the number of useless L-D's, Jeremy will be cast into outer darkness while the Wicked Witch of the North will go screeching off into the Highlands, hopefully never to be heard of again. Saint Teresa meanwhile will serenely carry on as Queen Bee and we'll all live happily everafter.
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Post by mickthecactus on Apr 19, 2017 21:09:49 GMT
Spot on Mossie.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2017 21:16:16 GMT
And UKIP has more or less vanished, from what I have read?
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Post by bixaorellana on Apr 19, 2017 23:02:38 GMT
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 20, 2017 7:14:29 GMT
Mossie ~ What are L-Ds? Liberal Democrats - roughly similar to Macron's spot on the political spectrum, but badly damaged by their time in coalition with the Tories (and beset by the centre third party problem, in that they're always viewed through the question whether they're veering more to the dominant party of the left or right). And UKIP has more or less vanished, from what I have read? Their only MP, a former Tory sitting for one of those left-behind downmarket seaside towns, has now left UKIP as well. The UKIP moneybags, who was planning to launch his own "Patriotic Alliance", has decided instead to stand against him, and his spokesman was quoted the other day as saying "Whether Banks stands as an independent, Patriotic Alliance or UKIP, these things are all up for discussion.....We were due to launch it on 5 May, but events supersede everything. We will just concentrate on the Clacton swamp. Make Clacton great again."If that's the height of his ambition (and his political creativity)........ My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by whatagain on Apr 20, 2017 10:00:53 GMT
Actually each time I hear about Theresa may, I get these images in my mind : www.imdb.com/name/nm0562138/and each time I see the THeresa with a 'H' I get quieted down...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2017 10:14:30 GMT
I was insufficiently familiar with Teresa's work to even know her name before Trump's error was pointed out. I barely know the names of the French 'stars' in that line of work.
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Post by patricklondon on Apr 22, 2017 18:58:56 GMT
It's started. Today I got my first leaflet, from the local Liberal Democrats: What's interesting about this is that it doesn't mention the general election at all: partly a sign that everyone's been caught on the hop by the surprise announcement, partly a means of making sure expenditure on this doesn't count towards the local candidate's permitted election expenses (formally speaking, the candidates haven't yet been announced or nominated - we all know who it will be (if you look very closely, you might be able to find her name mentioned), but as long as the party doesn't actually call her that, she's not yet the candidate. Also, since it's all about identifying the local (as much as national) government issues bothering people, and hoping to identify supporters they don't already know about, it suggests they're as much interested in building up support for next year's local elections as for this general election. That would be only realistic, since although once upon a time the LibDems and their predecessor parties were strong here and even ran the council for a time, they have slipped back to a distant third place in this constituency, and no-one expects them to do dramatically better this time. Another point of interest is that you'll see a Bengali translation of the main points - the borough as a whole is about 30% of Bangladeshi heritage (and thereby hangs many a colourful tale of parish pump politics) - though the cover picture rather lets down the attempt at a message of inclusion and diversity. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by patricklondon on May 3, 2017 7:09:54 GMT
Today is the last day of the old parliament, which is now dissolved. Nominations close on May 11th, so we should start seeing the official launch of manifestoes any day soon. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by bjd on May 3, 2017 7:42:12 GMT
Who chooses the candidates for each riding/constituency? Is it the political party or is there some local input? Can candidates be "parachuted" into ridings so that they have a chance at a seat in parliament even if they are not locals?
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Post by patricklondon on May 3, 2017 16:52:35 GMT
Local parties, but for all the parties I know anything about, candidates have also to be on the nationally-approved list as someone suitable (can string a few words together, look and sound reasonably presentable, and either have no dark past or a damn good explanation for why all that's behind them). There is one sitting Labour MP who's been taken off the list this time for various shenanigans. Again, AFAIK, all parties have emergency procedures to parachute someone in, but they have to risk trouble with the local party if it's just a matter of doing favours for someone important. Most local parties will have had a prospective candidate in place, if they don't already have a sitting MP, but this snap general election has caught a few on the hop, so there are some mad scrambles going on. My blog | My photos | My video clips"too literate to be spam"
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Post by bixaorellana on May 3, 2017 17:28:22 GMT
For better or for worse, it sounds possibly more democratic than the US system and definitely more interesting, even fun.
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Post by patricklondon on May 4, 2017 9:02:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 10:14:11 GMT
I'm waiting to see what Tony Blair is up to.
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Post by patricklondon on May 4, 2017 15:47:51 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 16:16:10 GMT
That is cruel!
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