A decade of changes

[Deleted]

Obviously the media have been passing this decade in review as it ends, and some of the observations do seem to indicate that we have gone through many more changes than we thought.

Mobile phones moved from massive to tiny and then grew in size a little because of the tactile screens. GPS devices guide a lot of people everywhere, it became possible to watch TV shows whenever you want, personal music devices shed their cassettes and most of their size, people buy books and trips and tons of other things at home now, nude or unwashed in many cases. Organic food became important to many more people, but obesity skyrocketed as well. It even looks like 3D movies are finally going to catch on, after 50 years of intermittent efforts.

On the down side, a lot of people thought that the world was entering an era of peace with the fall of the Soviet empire, but that did not turn out to be true at all. Global warming has reared its ugly head, and whether or not it is the reason, there have been more ecological catastrophes than in many previous decades. Money still makes the world go round and can ruin a lot of lives unexpectedly, even when people thought they were living in a time of prosperity.

Oh, and personal interaction on the internet, whether by chat sites, forums, Skype or any other method has really changed our involvement in the world, hasn't it?

Is there anything that comes to your mind that has been a profound change in the past 10 years?

[Deleted]

That's a good way to remember this decade: 'a decade of changes'. Especially of what we can now do with computers and over the internet.

I have include the changes that have happened in India over this last decade, how it's advanced in so many ways, how they have opened up the financial borders to the rest of the world. It's been a heck of an interesting decade, no doubt about it.

[Deleted]

It is also interesting to note that the coming decade is the one where the United States loses its "#1" status in the world. Of course that will be an earthshaking moment mostly for Americans rather than the rest of us, and for China, the new #1. I saw that the U.S. recently lost its status as the #1 automobile market in the world, and most of the rest is soon to follow.

Since we weren't around to see how it felt when Egypt, Greece, the Roman Empire, France and England all lost their status as #1 in the world, it will be an interesting decade. England and France both get all revved up and ridiculous from time to time as though they still had the influence of the past, so it will be fascinating to see how the U.S. feels to be ignored by China and then by the other countries.

Frankly, it is all happening faster than I thought it would.

[bazfaz]

There is a theory (or have I made it up) that the number one country in the world moves in a westerly direction. It started with China, moved to Egypt, then Greece, Rome, France, England, (the Soviet Union didn't realise it had missed its position and so failed), to the USA. Japan had its attempt (remember when the land value of the Royal Palace in Tokyo was more than the whole of Californnia), but stumbled.
So will the winner be China or India?

[Deleted]

China, then India. The population of India is supposed to pass that of China in a decade or so anyway.

[bixaorellana]

My head must really be in the clouds. Of course I knew it's the end of one year and the beginning of a new one, but until I read this OP, it truly hadn't registered that an entire decade was ending. Not only that, but it was a decade weighted with the status of being the first one in the 21st century.

As stated in the OP, access to & use of better, smaller portable personal technology for communication &/or entertainment pretty much skyrocketed in the past decade.

Again agreeing with the view in the OP that in so many ways the past ten years were the years of accepted forms finally breaking down -- or chickens coming home to roost, however one wishes to view it.

Banks failed, joblessness soared, housing prices zoomed and plummeted, investment scams were bigger and more devastating than ever, etc.

Some of the misery we're seeing -- wars and famines in various places -- started well before 2000, and it's tragic to see that nothing has been resolved. And it's disgusting that war is still seen as a viable solution to anything.

I think the ponderous wrestling with the health care issue in the US pretty much typifies how clunky institutions serving special interests are allowed to become governmental sacred cows. Time, money, & even lives are lost trying to fix the unfixable. Can we hope that the next decade might be one where globally we learn from past mistakes and become open to new solutions?

[bjd]

I have a problem with this whole idea of a " #1 country". When was China number 1? If you consider that it was so, it was at a time when most of the world's population didn't even know the place existed. Its alleged rank as an early #1 would come from its invention of gunpowder, paper and other things, I suppose.

And as long as neither China nor India have solved their enormous problems of poverty, political corruption and pollution, I don't believe they should be ranked as #1. It's not because Shanghai and Bombay have some wealthy people that the country deserves high status.

It will take time before the US realizes or admits that it is losing its influence. I agree with Kerouac that Britain and France are still acting as though they had anything to say, even though they lost any power they had at least 50 years ago.

[traveler63]

bjd, I agree with you. China is #1 economically, just because of its rise to its form of capitalism. Not so many years ago it wasn't so free economically and it still isn't truly a free country as long as it holds Tibet and other areas hostage, punish its citizens for their religious beliefs and generally hold down free speech. If Hong Kong had not been "repatriated" China would economically be as closed as it is now on human rights and poverty.

As far as America losing it's #1 status, if this is so, with all due respect, then you all need to find some other country to depend on and will that be China or India? Our governments spends an enormous amount of money and when there is a crisis all other industrialized countries freely look to we Americans and ask for money and for us to intercede politically. Mr. T63 says it is a lot easier to speak English than Chinese. K2, I wouldn't completely write us off, economically. AND, I wouldn't be so sure that that China will remain #1
economically.

[Deleted]

Nobody is writing the United States off. Have you written the United Kingdom and France off?

When was China number 1? If you consider that it was so, it was at a time when most of the world's population didn't even know the place existed.

Isn't that rather ethnocentric? Most of the world's population was already in Asia and the majority of them were Chinese. They can say just as easily that they had never heard of the backward European countries at that time.

As far as America losing it's #1 status, if this is so, with all due respect, then you all need to find some other country to depend on and will that be China or India?

With all due respect, China has already taken over as the superpower financing most of the African countries, and they are moving into South America as well, but I guess that this information isn't circulating very well. The Chinese know that most of the natural resources for the future are on those two continents, and while the rest of us are buying Chinese products, and the Chinese and Indians are buying our major corporations, we are worried about our well being for the next 5 or 10 years while they have a 50 year plan that is rolling along right on schedule.

It is not a pleasant situation for us, but as long as we ignore or deny what is happening, we are playing right into their hands.

[Deleted]

What Kerouac said. Putting on the blinkers and hoping those 'foreigners' arn 't really doing as well as they say, is not going to help. It's about time these mega countries advanced. Way overdue in my opinion.

Just a thought, perhaps we should all be looking to learn to speak Chinese or Indian, if this is next decade is going to be theirs. At least I already speak one of those languages already.

[Deleted]

I might also wonder, why would it be such a bad thing if China or India were #1? The current #1 has been know to complain about doing too much and not being sufficiently appreciated. Wouldn't it be nice for someone to take off the load?

[Deleted]

I wonder that too, Kerouac. Answer comes to mind ----> Jealousy and fear. Not that anyone would admit to it.

It's not a bad thing at all, they worked hard for it and kudos to them I say.

Oh and let's not forget, it might soon start costing people the same to travel and to be in these countries as it now does in the 'West.' I'm sure some don't appreciate that.

[Deleted]

In many Africa-related business cases, the West is absent. A report released by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in May found that U.S. firms deemed the level of risk in Africa unacceptably high.

But where the West sees risk, China sees opportunity. Africa has provided the highest return on foreign direct investment of any region in the world with an average of 31 percent for two years straight, said a report released at the 2008 U.N. Conference on Trade and Development.

And as a result of China's explosive growth, Africa has an opportunity to reduce its dependence on traditional trading partners such as the United States and the European Union (EU), said Michael Kulma, an expert on China's economy at the Asia Society.

"If you look at Africa and China's trade pattern, the numbers suggest that China and India combined make up about a third of export trade for African nations, which replaces the traditional U.S. and European relationships," Kulma told Xinhua. "No doubt that China is gaining ground in that economic sphere."

By importing Africa's raw commodities, and more recently, African-manufactured value-added goods such as processed foods and household consumer goods, China has helped integrate the continent further into the global economy.

Adams Bodomo, associate professor of linguistics and African studies at Hong Kong University, wrote in a recent essay that Africa and China have entered a golden era. This era, according to Bodomo, is marked by high-level political visits and meetings, an increase in trade and the rapid establishment of African and Chinese migrant communities on both continents.

"Ten years ago, there was talk about the marginalization of Africa," Bodomo told Xinhua during an interview. "Now, nobody talks about that."

China's presence has helped to "diversify the destination points for African exports and introduced greater competition while making available far cheaper manufactured imports than is usually the case," said Ernest Aryeetey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and director of the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) of the University of Ghana.

"It is not for nothing that the prices of many commodity exports from Africa remained fairly stable for the best part of the last eight years," Aryeetey told Xinhua via e-mail.

Bodomo said all of this has presented Africa with the opportunity to funnel China's interest into real investments in social projects.

"Africa has enjoyed a good decade of economic growth, and profit margins for foreign businesses there tend to be very healthy," French Howard, who recently wrote an op-ed about U.S. interest in Africa for the New York Times, told Xinhua via e-mail while traveling through Southeast Asia.

"Chinese companies have ... very smartly sought to expand in places where international competition is relatively weak. Africa is just such an environment.

"Having said this, Chinese business people deserve credit for understanding that Africa is a promising new stage for globalization," he concluded.

With few U.S. firms willing to invest in Africa, Chinese state-owned enterprises have discovered an environment to conduct business with less competition.

Nevertheless, China is not immune to the risks that deter U.S. interest. However, Chinese businessmen are still involved in deals with Africa, and they are also taking preventive measures to ward off possible terrorist attacks.

In 2008, China-Africa trade volume reached 106.8 billion dollars, up 45.1 percent from a year earlier, according to the Chinese government statistics. This year, the trade volume is likely to continue to expand.

[lagatta]

Yes, that is definitely a positive.

As for English being easier than Chinese, well, that is true for speakers of English and related languages (and Chinese does have the handicap of not having an alphabet system). But it is not "true" for everyone. Moreover you are forgetting the millions of Indians and other South Asians who speak fluent English.

Britain and France are both key countries in the EU. I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I believe the EU countries spend considerably more on aid than the US - this is not an anti-US snark but as a non USian American I REALLY dislike the use of the term "America" in that context - all of us from Ellesmere Island to Tierra del Fuego are Americans.

My only fear is that the emerging industrial countries will make the same errors North America and (to a slightly lesser extent, not out of merit but out of circumstance) Western European countries made during the postwar period, opting for cars and autoroutes rather than less-polluting trains and trams. Not that I blame them but if every Chinese and Indian famil owns a car, the planet is toast.

[fumobici]

I too wonder why Americans should spend much energy worrying about who is or isn't "#1". Defending that position is never easy and can ultimately be an economic burden. There really aren't many upsides associated with being on top, many of the countries with the best standards of living and most vibrant cultural life aren't world powers in any military or economic sense. Are France or England really diminished as places to live as a result of their loss of some nebulous primacy? I doubt it.

I don't see the dire future for the US many predict. The US became wealthy not so much by colonial adventures or on resources pilfered from abroad as on it's own considerable fundamental assets, things like enormous natural resources, an extremely advantageous geographic location, good to excellent governmental, educational, legal and physical infrastructures and a cultural ecology second to none. Does anyone really foresee Chinese global linguistic and cultural influence ever matching that of the US? I'm sorry but I just cannot foresee Mandarin and the historically inwardly directed Chinese/Han culture ever taking root outside their immediate geographical sphere in the way and to the extent that American/English culture has become globally pervasive.

Also China's essentially rigidly autocratic governing structure and centrally planned and controlled economy, although admirably suited to a boom cycle, may not have the flexibility or really the popular mandate to handle the next inevitable economic downturn gracefully or successfully. Let's see how a non-democratic autocracy copes when rising economic expectations go unmet exposing ethnic, religious, cultural and political faultlines that can be papered over with money as long as the standard of living is rising at a rate that will inevitably prove unsustainable in the long term.

[Deleted]

I too wonder why Americans should spend much energy worrying about who is or isn't "#1". Defending that position is never easy and can ultimately be an economic burden.

Or any country would spend so much energy into trying to be #1. That's not what advancement should be about in my opinion. If countries which have, for years on end, been ridden down with poverty and neglect, are doing better, then that's what really matters. Surely that's good news for everyone?

[Deleted]

I would even venture to say that every country that has lost the #1 status in history has done so by trying to control too much of the world. And yet no country ever seems to have learned from the past. China will make the same mistake.

[bixaorellana]

Just bumping this thread in the hope that other parts of the OP will be addressed. It's an interesting subject, some of which got side-tracked by the whole #1 thing.

[fumobici]

So that's what happens when the Chinese ideograms for Viagra and discount electronics hit the board's software!

[Deleted]

I thought it was interesting that Ford put the Swedish automaker Saab into liquidation, because it bought it 20 years ago and lost money each and every year. It implies interesting things about both Ford and Saab. But apparently, there are still some people who want to save Saab. Interesting, the sentimental attachment to historic carmakers as the number of them gets smaller and smaller.

[fumobici]

F1 con man/impresario Bernie Ecclestone is apparently making a move on the brand.