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Post by fumobici on Jan 22, 2020 22:26:49 GMT
From the poll site: "Of the adults, 4,069 are registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions in this survey. The research was conducted online. As is true with any opinion research report, the fewer the individual respondents in the sub-population, the larger the chance that sampling error and other error may make those estimates less precise." 4,000 really isn't a sufficient sample, especially with a poll conducted on line. It isn't just this poll, it's almost every poll. Democrats are going to have to get used to the fact that Bernie is our best hope for deposing Trump, or to suffer the consequences of ignoring that fact.
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 1:46:54 GMT
Polls tend to be NATIONAL, whereas electing a US President is not, as Hillary and Donald Trump and the Electoral College proved.
Bernie may be popular in Vermont, and with younger voters. But Vermont is one tiny state with a small number of Electoral College Votes.
And younger voters don’t vote in the percentages that older voters do, despite their apparent enthusiasm. Come Election Day they may not be registered to vote in the state they attend college in, for example. Or they can’t spend hours waiting in line to vote because they didn’t get their act together in time to request absentee/mailed ballots.
Stufff like that is part of “adulting” and I’m not seeing a lot of adult behaviors from the young’uns.
So I’m not as optimistic as fumobici is about Bernie’s prospects.
Plus he’s OLD! And old folks who vote know how limiting aging’s effects can be on one’s energy and stamina and cognition, etc.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jan 23, 2020 1:59:37 GMT
What a breathtaking number of unproved suppositions, stereotypes, and out & out prejudices in one post!
Have you gone to work for Hillary, who yesterday took to flinging feces like a disgruntled monkey?
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 3:03:54 GMT
No. I was quite happy with Hillary staying out of it.
But I’m not buying that Bernie could win the Electoral College vote. I feel a more moderate candidate - Amy Klobuchar, anyone? - has a better chance of winning more of the purple states that Dems need to win to take the Presidency back.
And ALL of the Dem candidates beat Trump head to head in national surveys. I have yet to see a survey that polls state by state reflecting electoral college outcomes.
Since “it’s the economy, stupid!” for most voters, and the economy on the surface seems good (even though it’s a continuation of trends started under Obama), voters are gonna hesitate to replace a “winner” like Trump with a “tax and spend democrat.”
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 3:13:52 GMT
And bixa, if you re-read my post, I’m not spouting stereotypes so much as giving reasons, and the reasons for the reasons.
I KNOW some young people who are very disillusioned with our government and aren’t interested in “which candidate is best?”, but ARE interested in scrapping the whole system and starting over.
Even if we try to guess which candidate would draw in young voters, if they don’t actually turn out to vote, a too-progressive candidate won’t get reliable older dem voters to turn out either, and certainly won’t get disaffected 2016 Trump voters, or independents. Even if Bernie calls himself an independent.
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Post by lagatta on Jan 23, 2020 3:52:37 GMT
I'm not USian, so it is really none of my business, but why the hell do US Americans not want the health coverage we have in most of the developed world?
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 3:55:51 GMT
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 4:07:52 GMT
I'm not USian, so it is really none of my business, but why the hell do US Americans not want the health coverage we have in most of the developed world? We have heard horror stories about long waits and high taxes. And many have believed it. Plus our capitalist bones object to anything that smacks of socialism which (in some people’s minds) is the same as communism. People genuinely fear that giving everyone equal and good access to health care would lead to the end of America as we know it. (And, I know, that could be a GOOD thing.)
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Post by bixaorellana on Jan 23, 2020 4:34:48 GMT
LaGatta, our elected representatives are in thrall to lobbies and insurance and pharmaceutical companies and are absolute whores to whatever will keep them in office. And the public buys into the spin and the fear-mongering.
Kimby, as far as candidates endorsed by the NYTimes, it is a paper rife with bland middle-of-the-road sympathies presented as liberalism.
I object to your blanket characterizations of both young and elderly people -- all of whom can't be either feckless or doddering.
I don't dismiss your reading of the political climate, but I do suspect that along with many registered Democrats you have been influenced by the nervous "electability" chatter which results in candidates such as Mrs. Clinton and the excruciating Joe Biden. We worry about Russia interfering in our elections, but the way so many voters were stampeded by the "likability" non-issue reminds me of Thurber's story, The Day the Dam Broke.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jan 23, 2020 5:01:32 GMT
My own analysis would tend to be the same as Kimby's, but I don't have a horse in this race, so I'm not paying as much attention as I should. I don't even know who some of these candidates are.
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Post by questa on Jan 23, 2020 11:01:56 GMT
I don't have a dog in this fight either but I can't understand why in a population of over 300 million, many of them college educated, US seems to be unable to find suitable candidates...especially among women.I also wonder why they have elections at all, the people with the gold make the rules.
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 11:56:59 GMT
If Trump has his way, soon we won’t have elections (other than rubber-stamp charades), and he’ll be president for life, to be followed by one of his spawn. Imagine Ivanka as the first female POTUS!
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Post by kerouac2 on Jan 23, 2020 13:39:12 GMT
Putin should be able to show them how it's done.
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Post by casimira on Jan 23, 2020 16:44:25 GMT
Ditto on Bixa's take of the NY Times which aside from what Bixa said is taken far too seriously as the "gospel" truth on many issues.
Let's go back to the presidential election in 2008. Both young and old, in addition to Afro-American voters came out in record number droves to elect Obama when he was running against McCain/Palin.
Fast forward to the current upcoming election and political climate/tension brought on by Trump. Younger voters are much more politically active and more sophisticated as well as being better informed (largely due to social media and the internet in general). Then tack on women voters. (maybe why Warren suddenly recalled Bernie's alleged statement about how a woman couldn't be elected).
I am only speculating here, but, I think these factors give Bernie a much better chance. Not necessarily a "slam dunk" but much more promising than any of the other Democratic candidates.
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Post by Kimby on Jan 23, 2020 17:04:42 GMT
I’m probably influenced by living in a bluish island in the middle of a red state, Montana, and coming from a state that was once proudly progressive, Wisconsin, and is now regressing into a bastion of MAGA country.
Liberal votes don’t count for much in either state under the electoral college system, though it does matter if we vote in state and local elections.
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Post by questa on Jan 24, 2020 11:31:45 GMT
Is there any bad stuff going down at the actual polling stations? People being stopped from voting? Officials 'bent'? significant numbers of mistakes? missing ballots? People voting under duress? etc
Knowing how certain candidates are so wicked on the hustings I can't believe the actual election process is squeaky clean.
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Post by Kimby on Jan 24, 2020 12:45:09 GMT
(Placeholder for page break)
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Post by onlyMark on Jan 24, 2020 13:31:38 GMT
In Zambia, every time there is an election or vote on anything the government send party members on a jolly to Dubai for a week as that is where the ballot papers are printed and the process must be 'monitored for security reasons'.
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Post by Kimby on Jan 24, 2020 13:48:48 GMT
American elections are conducted by the states, even the presidential elections, so election integrity depends on how conscientious the state election officers and their staffs are.
There are stories of boxes of uncounted absentee ballots being found in closets weeks after an election. Carelessness? Fraud?
Also, since the actual voting machinery varies WIDELY from state to state, the ability to guarantee a secure vote tally varies widely also. Some states use antiquated voting machines that produce no permanent record of each individual’s vote.
In Montana we fill in circles on a paper ballot that is run through an optical scanner to tally the vote, but the paper ballot is retained for future recounting, by machine or even by hand if necessary.
Some states use electronic voting machines that print out a coupon of your vote for you to verify that your vote was correctly recorded. There have been reports of people selecting their candidates, then watching as the machine changed their vote to a vote for the opponent! These reports happen every election.
Voting machines are designed and manufactured by a very few companies, Diebold among them. The owners of these companies are often not neutral parties, and you have to wonder if hanky panky is going on.
There were reports that among 16 Chinese trademark rights applied for by Ivanka Trump was one for, of all things, voting machines! What can she be up to?
Then there’s the issue of internet-connected voting machines that are vulnerable to hacking through “back doors”.
And, though I can’t find a citation for it, I heard that in Ohio, each precinct sends their tally by internet to the state election bureau at the end of Election Day. Despite exit polls showing one candidate was winning by a significant margin, in an instant, the time frame that the vote counts were electronically transmitted to HQ, the vote turned around to a win for the apparent loser.
In another case, early actual tallies of election returns showed one candidate winning by a margin larger than the number of remaining ballots to be counted. Yet when the official “results” were reported, the OTHER candidate was declared the winner!
And don’t get me started on “butterfly ballots” where it’s difficult to tell WHICH candidate you are voting for, and “hanging chads” which may or may not reveal a voter’s intent during a hand recount. Or gerrymandering which gives the party with fewer votes more representatives.
I feel elections should be run by nonpartisan commissions and - at least for the POTUS - should use standardized ballots and counting machines.
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Post by fumobici on Jan 24, 2020 15:47:48 GMT
If you want to find out who wants to be able to practice large-scale electoral fraud, just look at who supports electronic/automated voting systems vs. those who insist on hand marked paper ballots counted by hand in public. Anyone fighting the hand ballot marking/counting is either ignorant, or is a bad actor. That number, BTW, includes an alarming number of party bigwigs. And I don't think those party bigwigs who favor insecure electronic voting are ignorant.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jan 24, 2020 18:52:03 GMT
There is a tiny bit of electronic voting in France (I don't even know which cities), but the vast majority of votes are paper ballots put into envelopes. People trust this system and do I, even though it doesn't always seem to be super efficient. But each polling station has no more than about 1000 possible voters, the officials recruit 20 or so people during the day, and people are set up at 4 tables of 4 vote counters each. I have done this 3 or 4 times in the past. Each table gets a pack of 100 envelopes (and then one or more others depending on how fast they are). The first person removes the ballot from the envelope and hands it to the next person who reads out the name on the ballot. The others mark the result and make piles of the various ballots. Then everything is counted to make sure that there is no discrepancy.
From the time the polling station closes until the validation of the results takes about two hours maximum. I find that amount of time acceptable.
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Post by Kimby on Jan 24, 2020 20:40:22 GMT
I’m sure it’s been said before, but the US presidential Election Day should be made a national holiday, so everyone can vote without worrying about being late to work, or late to dinner. (Or bed!)
And I feel strongly that the ballots should be standardized across the nation, for POTUS anyway, and the counting process should also be standardized with a method that preserves a written record of each vote.
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Post by onlyMark on Jan 25, 2020 6:18:48 GMT
I think if the election process is so complicated and complex, an easier solution would be for them to just fight it out in a boxing ring. Or the duel thing on a deserted and dusty western street like High Noon. That I'm sure would be the 'American way' and go down a treat.
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Post by bjd on Jan 25, 2020 7:23:42 GMT
I’m sure it’s been said before, but the US presidential Election Day should be made a national holiday, so everyone can vote without worrying about being late to work, or late to dinner. (Or bed!) And I feel strongly that the ballots should be standardized across the nation, for POTUS anyway, and the counting process should also be standardized with a method that preserves a written record of each vote. Elections in France are always held on Sundays, a day most people don't go to work.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jan 25, 2020 10:33:52 GMT
I think elections are held on Sunday in most of the world.
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Post by whatagain on Jan 25, 2020 10:54:15 GMT
I have never counted ballots and would call in sick if I had to. I spent ten months in the army they can draft exemptées for the ballots as far as I am concerned.
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Post by casimira on Jan 30, 2020 18:16:05 GMT
I am hearing reports of Bernie being in the lead in Iowa. Fake news maybe but I do trust NPR over any of the other news outlets.
Some of the people that they interviewed were originally backing Warren and some Biden but have changed their minds in recent weeks in favor of Bernie.
A hopeful sign.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jan 30, 2020 18:26:00 GMT
Please! Pleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease!!!!!!
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Post by lagatta on Jan 30, 2020 18:49:43 GMT
I might even travel to the US if Bernie won...
After all, Mtl - Burlington Vt is a very short trip. He'd like meeting all my local éluEs.
We also use paper ballots. Ours fold up so the vote is secret. They are kept for recounts. For some reason, the vote is most usually on a Monday, but workers are supposed to get half the day off to vote.
Many of the people working at polling stations are retirees who like some extra money or other people not in steady employment. Nobody is drafted.
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Post by casimira on Jan 30, 2020 19:19:54 GMT
I might even travel to the US if Bernie won... After all, Mtl - Burlington Vt is a very short trip. He'd like meeting all my local éluEs. We also use paper ballots. Ours fold up so the vote is secret. They are kept for recounts. For some reason, the vote is most usually on a Monday, but workers are supposed to get half the day off to vote. Many of the people working at polling stations are retirees who like some extra money or other people not in steady employment. Nobody is drafted. This may be the case in Canada but not here in the US. I have worked as a Poll Commissioner here in NOLA since 2006 right after Katrina when there was a public appeal for people to "step up to the plate" and volunteer to work at the polls. The reason being that there was a shortage of workers that were still displaced and many of the polling stations throughout the city were flooded and no longer "functional". Yes, some of my co-workers are retirees but not all (I am now, but, wasn't in 2006). The hours are ungodly long : 5:30 a.m. until at least 9:00 p.m. (very brief breaks at random times to eat). And, the pay is menial not to mention the amount of borderline abuse by voters for various reasons.
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