What's with hurricane season?

[htmb]

Sept 27, 2022 18:36:42 GMT kerouac2 said:

No one has mentioned our member htmb, who lives in Gainesville, Florida. Okay, it should not take a direct hit and is inland in any case, but it is still in harm's way. (But she is not there right now so is in no danger.)

I’ve actually received private messages, which I appreciated very much.

[mickthecactus]

I certainly didn’t know where you were htmb.

I really hope everything goes well for you.

[htmb]

Thanks, Mick. I’ve been in France for almost a month. Getting out of Florida during hurricane season was part of my plan, though I do have mixed feelings at the moment.

I’ll be heading to the UK soon and hoping your train strikes don’t completely mess up my plans. So far it looks like I’ll be okay.

[Kimby]

Though we live in Montana and are there now, we have a house on Sanibel Island, apparently right in the crosshairs of Ian, now that the storm track is shifting south. A storm surge of 7’ will be hard to survive, and they are predicting up to 10’.

Plus Cat 4 winds of 140 mph when our new roof is rated for 125. This could be the end of our Sanibel escapes. I don’t think I’d rebuild if it isn't fixable. Just demolish what’s left and try to sell the lot to another sucker. (Arizona here we come!)

[mossie]

Enjoy your trip to the UK Htmb

And commiserations to people in the path of this hurricane

[htmb]

Sept 27, 2022 23:54:12 GMT Kimby said:

Though we live in Montana and are there now, we have a house on Sanibel Island, apparently right in the crosshairs of Ian, now that the storm track is shifting south. A storm surge of 7’ will be hard to survive, and they are predicting up to 10’.

Plus Cat 4 winds of 140 mph when our new roof is rated for 125. This could be the end of our Sanibel escapes. I don’t think I’d rebuild if it isn't fixable. Just demolish what’s left and try to sell the lot to another sucker. (Arizona here we come!)

It’s got to be a helpless feeling, to just watch and wait. At least you’re not down there now, Kimby.
That whole Cape Coral area to the south of Ft. Myers has built up so much, I’m wondering what will be left after the storm. Seems very low and overbuilt, with lots of canals weaving through the community. I have several cousins who live there. Hopefully they’ve evacuated early, but I have no idea.

Edit: my cousins have stayed put ”because of their pets." Hoping they don’t regret the decision later.

[bixaorellana]

Glad you are safely away from danger, Htmb. Kimby, hope Sanibel is spared the worst of this storm.

[casimira]

The sustained winds are approaching Cat 5 status. That's not including the gusts that will accompany the system followed by possible tornado activity after the eye has passed wherever it ends up going.

The Eastern seaboard will also see some action with 48 hours of rainfall causing flooding and storm surge perhaps.

I wonder if Huckle has headed out of where she is on the East Coast. Here's hoping she and her property remain safe.

Kimby, I hope you don't sustain too much damage. It would be a shame for you to have to give up that property, but I can certainly commiserate with you and your situation in making a decision to rebuild or not.
Your insurance rate alone will likely see a dramatic increase.
I listened to your mayor of Sanibel this a.m. and she sounded to be a very levelheaded and savvy leader.

Having communicated with HTMB I am glad that she is "over the pond" atm. I can understand how you would have mixed feelings about not being there.

[kerouac2]

NBC News just said that the eyewall came ashore at Sanibel Island.

[casimira]

I saw the same Kerouac.

The best site for timely updates and footage etc. is stormcastforums.com

They know their stuff.
Both Kimby and I are members.

[casimira]

I can't help but think of the devastation of wildlife such as the manatees and other creatures. I suppose they have survived other storms. 

I remember that birdwatchers would come out of the woodwork when I was growing up on Long Island. Birds would get caught up in the eye of the hurricanes and appear in the the most unlikely of places. Exotic birds that far North were often spotted.

[kerouac2]

I saw photos on tampabay.com of the destroyed section of the Sanibel causeway. Looks like only boats will be able to get there until further notice.

[mickthecactus]

Sanibel seems to have taken the brunt of the storm.

[bjd]

My sister and her husband have been spending winters in Clearwater, Florida for the past 10 years or so. I just looked on a map to see where that is with respect to Sanibel and Tampa and see that it's probably also in bad shape. I'll have to see whether they are going this winter or not -- at least they don't own anything there, just rent.

[Kimby]

Tampa dodged the bullet that got Sanibel in the heart. So Clearwater is probably OK.

I have a friend in Tampa area who evacuated to a shelter, but returned next day to find his house fine. Some broken branches. The 10-16 foot storm surge that was predicted for Tampa ended up hitting Lee County, essentially wiping Fort Myers Beach off the map. Lots of damage on Sanibel, but no eyewitnesses to report on conditions as most took the mandatory evacuation orders seriously.

[kerouac2]

Kimby, have you watched any of the Sanibel drone videos on YouTube?

[kerouac2]

[lugg]

Hope everyone is safe and their friends/ family/ pets too.

[lugg]

Sept 27, 2022 19:51:45 GMT htmb said:

I’ll be heading to the UK soon and hoping your train strikes don’t completely mess up my plans. So far it looks like I’ll be okay.

Fingers crossed Htmb xx Hope you have a great visit here .

[htmb]

Thanks, Lugg. I’m very excited about my visit.

[htmb]

Sept 28, 2022 7:11:01 GMT mossie said:

Enjoy your trip to the UK Htmb

And commiserations to people in the path of this hurricane

Many thanks, Mossie.

[Kimby]

We have been devouring video and newscasts trying to recognize our neighborhood. NOAA has released satellite imagery taken since Ian had his way with our fair island.

Our neighborhood looks like it has done pretty well - from above, anyway. Houses have roofs, with shingles. Trees mostly not on roofs.

So we withstood the wind BUT, the effects of storm surge are invisible from above. We need boots on the ground, but with FIVE areas of the causeway breached, there is no way to drive out there. When it’s safe, residents with hurricane passes will be allowed back on by boat. Not a car ferry, though. So there will have to be shuttles to move people around on the island. (All the cars left on island will be ruined from salt water, including ours.)

The city manager said, “Don’t invite your family down for Christmas. You won’t be back till 2023!” (Except to pick up clothing, valuables and document damage for insurance claims.). Everyone needs to find alternate housing for the time being.

Wow. Glad I live in Montana . And that fire season here has ended.

[kerouac2]

One of the reports I saw said that houses on Sanibel were mostly of better quality construction than in surrounding areas, but that meant in many cases that the walls were still standing instead of the lot turning into a slab.

[Kimby]

When our house was built in 1982, the building code required living quarters to be elevated on pilings so that the floor surface was 11 ‘ above sea level. (Floor joists and carports, storage rooms, etc. could be below this level.) That would put our house’s floor 8’ above ground level. Storm surge is measured from ground level, not sea level.

In subsequent zoning code changes the piling height was changed to 14 feet above sea level, and you can understand why.

I’m thinking more code changes are on the way.

We are still waiting for on the ground reporting of conditions, but have to try to be patient.

[casimira]

Kimby, I was wondering if you are in contact with any of your neighbors or business owners that you may be connected to in order to check on the status of your home.  Surely someone made it there by boat to scope out the damages. I saw some rescue boats that went in and pulled out people still there who rode out the storm (foolishly I must say).

Code changes are inevitable just as they are here. New regulations and all that, many of which have held up our rebuilding efforts.

[Kimby]

We have been devouring video and newscasts trying to recognize our neighborhood.

NOAA has released satellite imagery taken since Ian had his way with our fair island. Our neighborhood looks like it has done pretty well - from above, anyway. Houses have roofs, with shingles. Trees mostly not on roofs.

So we withstood the wind BUT, the effects of storm surge are invisible from above. We need boots on the ground but with FIVE areas of the causeway breached, there is no way to drive out there. People who stayed (foolishly, it turns out) are being evacuated by boat and coast guard helicopter.

For the time being there is a 24 hour curfew. Nobody but emergency personnel and utility crews are being allowed on island and nobody is staying overnight.

When it’s safe, residents with hurricane passes will be allowed back on by boat. Not a car ferry, though. So there will have to be shuttles to move people around on the island. (All the cars that were left on-island will be ruined including ours.)

The city manager said, “Don’t invite your family down for Christmas. You won’t be back till 2023!” Except an eventual day trip to pick up clothing, valuables and to document damage for insurance claims. Everyone needs to find alternate housing for the time being.

Wow. Glad I live in Montana . And that fire season here has ended.

[Kimby]

This is OUR neighborhood. (See YouTube link below.). There are glimpses of our house across the lagoon from the pool. The devastation is shocking.

Edited to add, our house looks OK from the air (it’s visible at 5:10-5:15) but we can’t tell what level the storm surge reached. Some of our neighbors’ houses look pretty bad. Down the shore some houses caught fire and burnt to the ground, not in our subdivision. The whole first 8 or 9 minutes are of our neighborhood.

The big issue is the amount of destruction the causeway (14:25) has experienced. It’s the only access, and will take months or years to repair. We may end up going by ferry next time we go there. Until 1963, ferry was the only way to get there. Mr. Kimby’s first visit was by ferry in 1962.

[mich64]

I am sorry Kimby, it must be so difficult to watch but not watching and knowing must also be so difficult.

I hope all our members from Florida or who have family in Florida have made contact with their loved ones and are okay.

My friend is doing okay in Bradenton, her power has been restored and she met wonderful neighbours who have been helping her out. The lady she is there to care for ended up going into the hospital the day before the storm. She took her for a scheduled appointment with the doctor and she was in a-fib so she had to be admitted. She came home today.

[Kimby]

Sanibel had not experienced a hurricane since Donna in 1960, 22 years before Mr. Kimby’s parents built their house, now our house, in 1982.

Then in 2004 came Charley, a small fast-moving Cat 4 hurricane with localized damage. (Not our locale.) So a 44 year gap between hurricanes that hit Sanibel.

Then in 2017 it was Irma, a dangerous storm which was projected to make a direct hit on Sanibel but turned inland before reaching us. Whew! The only damage on Sanibel was from small tornadoes that spun off the hurricane. So a 13-year gap between hurricanes.

And now the big one, Ian, a huge slow-moving Cat 4+ monster, only 5 years later.

I’m seeing a pattern here, and it’s not a good one! 44, 13, and 5. Will be be hit again in 2 years? Next year? Next month?

Does it make sense to even rebuild on these barrier islands and shoreline cities? Perhaps it’s time to think about relocating the residents of these vulnerable places and turning them into refuges that would help protect development further inland. Sanibel is already 65% undeveloped conservation lands…

Just some post-hurricane musings.

[kerouac2]

Watching the overfly of Fort Myers on this video and also some others, I thought it was interesting that many of the waterfront houses were still there but the houses behind them were gone. This seems logical to me if the waterfront houses were destroyed in an earlier hurricane and were rebuilt according to the new building code. The houses behind them were lucky the first and maybe even the second time but not this time.