What's with hurricane season?

[cheerypeabrain]

Good luck Kimby xxx

[Kimby]

Today we took a break from mucking and sorting to walk around the neighborhood and farther along the shore to where the devastation was awe-inspiring. The surge blew through everyone’s ground level and emptied its contents onto the surrounding yards. New channels gouged into the beach - by retreating storm surge? Mountains of sodden and ruined possessions piled along the roads. Makes me very glad we weren’t wealthy enough to buy a gulf front home!

[mich64]

Continued strength to you both Kimby. So many up and down emotions you surely have gone through the past couple of months. It seems like you have some positives to build on.

[Kimby]

This is true, Mich. and if we were to stay inside and not look out the windows, it would feel like any other visit to Sanibel…

[kerouac2]

Here we go again.

[bixaorellana]

That looks dire.

Right after looking at that hurricane map, I thought the same thing I always think: "Well, a hurricane can't get to me here."

And then it occurred to me that I am no longer in the place where that was true.

Yikes. I am only @ 40 miles or 65 kilometers from the coast of the Gulf of Mexico!

[Kimby]

Hope it doesn’t change course and hit Sanibel. We don’t need another hurricane! Tampa was supposed to get Ian instead of us.

[htmb]

Aug 28, 2023 23:16:38 GMT Kimby said:

Hope it doesn’t change course and hit Sanibel. We don’t need another hurricane! Tampa was supposed to get Ian instead of us.

Did you really mean to sound so insensitive towards those of us who are currently sitting right in the path of a possible Category 3 hurricane, Kimby?

[Kimby]

Gawd no! Terribly sorry if it sounded that way, htmb.

Sanibel is still recovering from the Category 5 hit we took 11 months ago, and it was due to a swerve in the storm’s path. That’s all I meant.

I do hope you and yours come through this just fine.

[Kimby]

There is concern that the temporary road on the causeway islands may not be sturdy enough to resist the storm surge of even an oblique hit…

[bixaorellana]

If this thing keeps intensifying as is projected, it's going to be pretty scary.

The expected landfall is around Cedar Key, which is Levy County. That is the county which borders Alachua County -- Htmb's county -- on Alachua's southwestern corner.

The "good" news for Fort Myers/Sanibel area is that it should be far enough south to get no more than maybe three feet of storm surge, although the mayor of Fort Myers beach has warned residents not to get complacent.

Htmb, I know you're an organized person, so will keep the good thought that you've made all possible preparations for any bad weather that hits your town.

[Kimby]

The weather talking heads keep saying the big bend area of Florida is the best possible place for a hurricane to hit as it is much more sparsely populated and less built up than the other possible landfalls. No consolation to those who DO live in the big bend, though…

[kerouac2]

I seem to have read that category 3 storms have almost never hit there, so the risk is anybody's guess.

[mich64]

Thinking of htmb as I have been watching the progress of the storm and it seems to be quite possible it may land in her area. I am sure she is reading and watching the reporting and has acted accordingly but hope all goes as best as possible for htmb and all concerned.

[htmb]

The last I heard, there was a prediction of 15 feet of storm surge along the Northwestern Gulf Coast. The terrain to the west of Alachua County is extremely low and flat. Water in the big bend area is very shallow; more like a bay than a gulf. There is a mandatory evacuation for the islands of Cedar Key along with all of the coastal areas. This storm has the potential to cause some major destruction and certainly loss of life in that area.

My county, located in the middle of the northern part of the state, is now on the predicted south-eastern side of the storm path. The main danger for us will be tornados, followed by fresh water flooding, falling trees and wind damage. I’ve done what I can to prepare the outside of my home. The rest will be up to Mother Nature.

A bit of a macabre joke among Florida residents, and probably others living in coastal areas, is that you absolutely never want to see Jim Cantore show up in your part of the world. He’s the Weather Channel meteorologist/personality whose specialty is to cover major storms. Well, he arrived at the Gainesville airport yesterday and was reportedly heading for Cedar Key. Not a good sign.

[htmb]

Aug 29, 2023 18:48:22 GMT mich64 said:

Thinking of htmb as I have been watching the progress of the storm and it seems to be quite possible it may land in her area. I am sure she is reading and watching the reporting and has acted accordingly but hope all goes as best as possible for htmb and all concerned.

Thanks, Mich.

[Kimby]

The south east side of a gulf hurricane is the “dirty side”. It has on-shore winds that push storm surges ahead of it, and also is where tornadoes are most likely to spin off.

Sanibel was south east of Ian, and was totally flooded, and left with inches of clay-like muck covering everything, scooped up by the surge from the bottom of the gulf and settled out as the water receded. A mess for sure.

How far are you from the gulf shoreline, htmb? Hopefully well out of reach of the storm surge.

I hope Tampa will miss the worst of it as well. The bay is SO vulnerable and they’ve been so lucky with recent storms that Tampa residents may be complacent…

[htmb]

My area is where people have traditionally evacuated to when escaping coastal storms. We are about 50 miles east of the gulf coast. Plus, our terrain is relatively hilly, rather than totally flat.
The latest National Weather Service prediction shows path of the hurricane, now a category 2, hitting the coast more to the north. Storm surge warnings are even more dire now, from Cedar Key up through Appalachicola. So, it’s looking a bit better for where I live. Tornados, etc, are still possibilities.

Once the hurricane crosses Florida it’s predicted to impact the Atlantic coast of Georgia and the Carolinas.

[Kimby]

And there’s still THREE MONTHS of hurricane season left!

Though one year - 2005 - we ran into January, exhausting the alphabet and running into the Greek alphabet for naming storms…

www.weather.gov/tae/climate_2005review_hurricanes

[mossie]

My thoughts are with you htmb, and trust this lot passes you by

[casimira]

I see that the storm was upgraded to a Cat 4 early this a.m. and then back to a 3 presently.
The Category can be deceptive, and people place so much emphasize on that when it's the storm surge that can cause much more damage.
Katrina (18 years ago yesterday) was a Cat 3 but had 30 Feet of storm surge along with the levees break from human error. So, it's important that people keep this in mind when making preparations.
The FULL MOON tonight will also come into play with high tide accompanying the surge.
Then there's the tornadoes that sprout up with no warning.

HTMB; you have been on my mind as I watch all this on the various television stations and weather websites and forums.
I know you are an organized person as Bixa already noted. That being said it doesn't dismiss my concern for you and yours and your property.
Please stay safe in any event. xx

[htmb]

Thanks everyone. So far so good here inland. Power in/out. We’re still under a tornado warning.

You’re right, Casimira. Major s urge is now happening now along the coast.

[Kimby]

Looks like Tampa has largely dodged another bullet. The residents will likely carry false confidence into future storms.

Glad to hear htmb is safe and sound, so far.

[kerouac2]

And it is still low tide on the coast.

[casimira]

I was watching a representative from Citrus County who reported the impact that the storm will have on not only the citrus industry but also all the farms in that area with cattle and crops. There is also a major fishing industry along the coast that will be impacted.
This is an unprecedented event for this area in many ways.

[bixaorellana]

Hey, Htmb - - just got online to see how you were faring. I see that 47 minutes ago all was well. I imagine you're hoarding the phone battery, etc., but please do check in here if you can.

[htmb]

We’re still having strong gusts of wind here with tornados possible, plus we are under a flood watch, but hopefully the worst is over for the Alachua County area. I’m bracing myself before going upstairs to check for possible water encroachment. Lots and lots of damage all around the state of Florida, to be sure. Feeling very fortunate.

I hate wind noises, and wanted to make sure I got some sleep. I have a very large ground floor closet under my stairs. Since it’s where I’d go in case of a tornado anyway, I made a nice little bed for myself in there and actually got some sleep.

[bixaorellana]

Oh, good idea! That's far better than bolting awake all night crying, "What was that?!"

Fingers crossed all is dry upstairs.

[lugg]

Apologies being so late to this news about the latest hurricane . Just read about it earlier and immediately thought of you Htmb as I understand its severely impacting on your part of Florida . Just read your latest up=dates and I really hope you are still ok and escape the worst in your safe haven. xx.

[htmb]

Thanks, Lugg. All okay here.