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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 10, 2024 17:28:29 GMT
No, everybody in the National Assembly and all parliamentary assistants are out of a job until further notice. I imagine there are some dispositions for paying their salaries for at least a month. One of the greatest disappointments of the current situtation is that all pending legislation is cancelled and must start from scratch (if at all) with the new legislature. The most tragic cancellation is the upcoming law for assisting the end of life for people who need it. We have been waiting for years, and now we have to continue to wait.
The president will name a new prime minister after the election, almost certainly from the winning political party but (just like in other countries) not necessarily if there is clearly too much opposition and the government would fall almost immediately to a no confidence vote.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 10, 2024 17:42:03 GMT
The Rassemblement National (Le Pen) arrived in 1st place in 93% of the towns in France. It won first place in 99% or 100% of the towns in 13 departments. The city of Paris is in 4th place in France for the lowest percentage of votes for the RN with 8.5%.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 10, 2024 18:22:15 GMT
Guess that proves the contention of the discontented such as the yellow vests & their ilk -- that You People are a bunch of elitists who know nothing about "real life". The solution to that is obviously to elect someone who caters to their fears & prejudices by blaming those in government for everything, yet presenting no concrete solutions. Well, no democratic humane solutions, anyway. But yikes -- almost 600 people out of a job, just like that. The dropping of all pending legislation is extremely demoralizing, I would think. Thanks for the explanation about a prime minister -- that helps!
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Post by htmb on Jun 10, 2024 22:10:39 GMT
Kerouac, what do you predict will happen? Do you have any strong feelings about what Macron has done?
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 11, 2024 2:48:28 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 11, 2024 4:54:29 GMT
To stray a bit from the subject of political leanings, all of the political leaders in France are now young, no matter which party they represent. Believe me, this is very refreshing even if some of the dinosaurs are still lurking in the background.
As for predictions, I have none yet. It's too early before the candidates are even revealed. The left got back together yesterday and will apparently present a united front again but only if Mélenchon is excluded.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 11, 2024 5:22:41 GMT
This can help you visualize how different Paris is from the rest of France in this election. Paris is socialist pink, the eastern suburbs are left wing and the western suburbs still support Macron. Dark blue is of course the RN.
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Post by bjd on Jun 14, 2024 12:07:15 GMT
I just got home from my sailing trip. This morning on the bus from Bayonne to home, the driver had the radio on and it was just political commentary for an hour and a half. Typically for France, they were all talking over each other and contradicting each other.
On Sunday night, I looked at local election results and discovered that my town (in the department second from the bottom at lower left) voted 24% for the far right with an abstention rate of 40%. Better than nationally but still shameful. This southwestern area of France was the only region that had remained leftish in the previous regional elections but even that seems to have changed.
I did hear that there would be a coalition (or "popular front") of the leftwing parties but only if Mélanchon was not the candidate.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 14, 2024 12:19:47 GMT
It has been a very interesting week with both the right and the left being put through the meat grinder. However, I do not have any specific comment to make because the dust has not settled yet (unusual for a meat grinder to produce so much dust!).
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 14, 2024 14:52:23 GMT
Hope your trip was wonderful, Bjd!
Also hope that the results in your district are only a reflection of the French "blowing off steam", which is apparently what Macron hopes.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 23, 2024 13:35:03 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 23, 2024 15:20:50 GMT
The article is pretty accurate. The left has a chance of pulling ahead of the RN, not a huge chance, but there are two big debates coming up this week that could change opinions. An interesting factor is that more than a million proxy vote forms have been filed, more than six times the number of the previous legislative election. This is because we don't have absentee ballots in France, and a lot of people had already planned their summer holidays when the election was called, because it is the end of the school year. So the question is "who are these people?" Poor people often can't afford to leave on holiday, so this means that the proxy people have more money, and people with money are less supportive of the far right. The fact that they did the paperwork implies that their ballots will really be cast by reliable friends or family members whereas 'ordinary' voters don't always bother to go to the polls. This is just the fantasy that political analysts are having since they have nothing better to do and all of the media are hungry for them to spin a tale.
One thing that people are not talking about is the fact that the leftists coalition will explode the moment the election is finished because the far left of LFI has too many other enemies on the left and they can't wait to get rid of them. Then things will start to become interesting, especially if no clear majority is elected.
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Post by bjd on Jun 23, 2024 16:07:53 GMT
Indeed, the article is accurate. We had a family meal today with 6 adults, one of whom is our very lefty son-in-law. Even he hates Melenchon.
It's difficult because voting for the ecologists or socialists still leaves open the path to a more radical far left candidate -- it depends on how they divide up the constituencies. We all agreed that the far right absolutely has to be kept out but we all had differing ideas on why so many people are willing to vote for them. They have managed to make themselves seem like the answer to people's desire for change, or a return to the good old days with no foreigners, a growing economy (that's the older ones) and total ignorance of what the far right really represents (the younger ones).
The far right is also proposing a straightforward choice for an eventual prime minister -- a 28 year-old who joined the Front National just because it seemed like a way to get ahead. Meanwhile, Marine le Pen is pulling the strings.
But the left has said, "If we get a majority, we will decide who should be the prime minister", which means nobody knows what to expect.
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Post by whatagain on Jun 25, 2024 7:37:52 GMT
I saw a nice meme about Macron telling his wife he doesn’t get the majority. And Brigitte answers that it reminds her of the start of their relationship
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 25, 2024 14:09:35 GMT
the leftists coalition will explode the moment the election is finished because the far left of LFI has too many other enemies on the left and they can't wait to get rid of them. The article makes it pretty clear that it's a begrudging coalition, to say the least. But even if some in that coalition are in it only for their own long-game agendas, it's quite admirable that they came together to confront the horrifying threat of the right coming to power. the left has said, "If we get a majority, we will decide who should be the prime minister" It would seem a logical outcome of their receiving a majority, but it also seem prudent not to be trumpeting that about. I wonder if the members of the coalition have already come to an agreement on a pick for prime minister.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 25, 2024 14:46:21 GMT
In the past election, the LFI of Mélenchon was the most powerful party on the left, so that's why he thinks he deserves to be chosen. And based on the distribution from the previous election, LFI has the most candidates with far fewer for the Socialists, Communists and Greens, so it is quite possible that LFI will win the most seats again. That's the danger.
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Post by bjd on Jun 25, 2024 15:22:50 GMT
But Melenchon's popularity has really dropped and not many people want him as prime minister.
He has been at the forefront of pushing for a reduction of the retirement back to 60. He should take his own advice since he is nearly 73, and getting pensions from all the political posts he has held over the years.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 25, 2024 17:18:40 GMT
Gosh, it's almost as though high self-regard, economic ignorance or indifference, a cynical facility for lying, and having ones ass well covered are a recipe for success in politics!
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 25, 2024 18:21:19 GMT
That's why I'm glad that nearly all of the political dinosaurs in France are gone. The new problem is that some of the young new politicians like Jordan Bardella or Marion Maréchal are just as toxic or even worse. But they manage to attract people because of the unfortunate "beauty contest" aspect of politics.
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Post by whatagain on Jun 26, 2024 8:31:10 GMT
For me Marion should be a porn actress. She has that look of the nasty bitch that attracts the plumbers (in those movies). My 2 cents.
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Post by bjd on Jun 26, 2024 8:39:03 GMT
She doesn't look friendly enough to be a porn actress, not that I have much experience with their appearance (Stormy Daniels?). She just looks like a bitch and will probably return to the LePen family fold now that the even-further-to-the-right party she joined didn't do as well as the RN.
I didn't see the debate last night but saw this morning that Bompard (LFI) told Bardella that when his ancestors arrived in France (Italian and Algerian), the locals probably said about migrants what he is saying now.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 30, 2024 15:39:53 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Jun 30, 2024 16:48:11 GMT
Yes, participation seems to be breaking records but we won't find out what that means until after 20:00.
It always infuriates me (even though it is normal) that all of the insiders already know the results, since most polls closed at 18:00 but no results can be released until 20:00 when the polls close in the big cities. And I think they already know (but HOW do they know?) the results in the big cities even though the ballots are still sitting uncounted in the plexiglas urns at the moment.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jun 30, 2024 18:03:46 GMT
They don't know any more than the rest of the public. What they do know are all the signs that point to a probable outcome, but they can be wrong. In the US, at least, there are multiple cases of elections being called early & wrongly, Dewey vs. Truman probably being the most famous.
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Post by bjd on Jun 30, 2024 18:23:21 GMT
I'm still waiting for the local results but am happy that Bayonne/Anglet has voted to keep the centre candidate. Of course, the far right is complaining that people voted massively just to keep them out! Anglet's participation was 71%.
I do see that nationally, the far right is in front with 34% of the vote. It was predicted in the polls but is still awful.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jul 1, 2024 2:10:15 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 1, 2024 2:52:42 GMT
The RN will almost certainly not have an absolute majority, so there will be a minority government which will probably fall within a few months.
Just like the last election, I won't be voting next week because the far left won in my district with 64%.
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Post by bjd on Jul 1, 2024 6:22:10 GMT
I just had a look and the centre Ensemble won here but there will be a second round with two, if not three, candidates.
I also looked at Bayonne and there the Left coalition came in first, but again with a second round next week.
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Post by whatagain on Jul 1, 2024 14:47:03 GMT
When bordella suggests to prohibit the bi-nationals to access certain positions, it makes me think of the first racist laws of the 3rd reich refusing some jobs to Jews.
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Post by bjd on Jul 1, 2024 14:59:43 GMT
My only hope now is that Le Pen/Bordella NR (or Front National) doesn't get a majority. Bordella claims he won't be prime minister unless they get an absolute majority but that would just mean that they would prevent any kind of political agreements on anything.
I thought Macron was a smart guy but this shows that he made a huge political miscalculation. However, the far left yelling about how all this is Macron's fault is a bit much. Nobody forced so many people to vote for the far right. I was surprised that it was such a heavily rural vote for the far right.
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