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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 1, 2024 15:40:29 GMT
All of the opposition kept demanding that Macron dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections, so I think they are being amazingly hypocritical (except the RN of course, but even they are not completely delighted since they almost certainly won't reach an absolute majority after the runoff and were also very adamant until Macron called the election that an Assembly without a majority is worthless. So they have already called themselves worthless. prohibit the bi-nationals to access certain positions, Naturally I was among the 3½ million French citizens who were offended by this statement for all sorts of reasons. But I am particularly outraged that someone of Italian and Algerian origin could utter such crap.
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Post by bjd on Jul 1, 2024 15:45:04 GMT
From an editorial by a French journalist, Pierre Haski, in today's Guardian:
"We can also wonder why this country, with its many assets, has generated enough anger and resentment among its citizens to produce an election result that is more likely to damage its economy and social cohesion than solve real problems. We can also question a French political elite that was so blind it let the far right prosper in large corners of a society that felt forgotten and despised.
All of this is true, and is being discussed everywhere now in France, among friends, colleagues and in our family circles. Everyone is looking in the mirror and wondering what to do next Sunday in the second round. At the very least, we’ll have to learn to live in a divided land where the National Rally controls small towns and vast areas of rural France, while the “reasonable” people have the upper hand in major cities including Paris. This is a real tragedy."
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 1, 2024 15:54:59 GMT
No matter what, it cannot be denied that French politics are a bit weird. Paris was an absolute and total bastion of the right until 20 years ago, and now it is an absolute and total bastion of the left (along with a number of other French cities). A lot of the rural areas used to have mostly mildly leftist (Socialist) leanings with a number of Communist hotspots. Now almost all of them have veered far right (although Brittany seems to have come to its senses a bit in yesterday's election).
Unfortunately, I do understand this perhaps a tiny bit. France has always been ruled by and from Paris with the opinions of the rest of France mostly ignored. So these days, whatever Paris wants is opposed by most of the rest of France without even examining the logic.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jul 1, 2024 16:25:29 GMT
I thought Macron was a smart guy but this shows that he made a huge political miscalculation. However, the far left yelling about how all this is Macron's fault is a bit much. Nobody forced so many people to vote for the far right. I was surprised that it was such a heavily rural vote for the far right. From what you & Kerouac have said here, it would seem that he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. He must have thought -- as any sane person would -- that yesterday's vote would show that most of the country would be appalled at the prospect of the far right attaining power. As you know, while the media laughed at the clown and sane people thought it was impossible, it turned out that there was enough support to put the excrescence that is Trump into the presidency. Wasn't it the rural areas that made up most of the yellow vests and similar protests? They must have all gone home and seethed until going to the polls yesterday. France has always been ruled by and from Paris with the opinions of the rest of France mostly ignored. So these days, whatever Paris wants is opposed by most of the rest of France without even examining the logic. It is probably logical for rural areas and districts distant from the capital to feel underserved. It is also what their representatives are for. But as we all know from our respective countries' systems, the representatives ultimately are in it for themselves, not their constituencies. For those of you who, like me, need guidance to understand France's system of voting: wreg.com/news/international/ap-international/ap-french-far-right-leads-after-legislative-elections-1st-round-but-rivals-hope-to-deny-it-a-majority/
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Post by bjd on Jul 1, 2024 18:06:09 GMT
From what you & Kerouac have said here, it would seem that he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. I'm not at all convinced that Macron would have been damned if he hadn't called the election. It was a European election, not a national one, and the only people calling for Macron to step down or quit or whatever were the far right. As it turns out, it was a stupid thing to do.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jul 1, 2024 21:00:11 GMT
Well, it certainly has not turned out well.
What I meant by "damned if he didn't" was that it seemed as though there would be relentless strife and attempts to block anything Macron & his party attempted. My interpretation was that was the reason for his taking the bull by the horns & calling this election, an interpretation that may be based on not completely understanding the situation.
I did wonder why he wasn't more reined in by the unquiet ghost of David Cameron calling a referendum that didn't need to be called.
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Post by fumobici on Jul 2, 2024 2:59:22 GMT
No matter what, it cannot be denied that French politics are a bit weird. Paris was an absolute and total bastion of the right until 20 years ago, and now it is an absolute and total bastion of the left (along with a number of other French cities). A lot of the rural areas used to have mostly mildly leftist (Socialist) leanings with a number of Communist hotspots. Now almost all of them have veered far right (although Brittany seems to have come to its senses a bit in yesterday's election). Unfortunately, I do understand this perhaps a tiny bit. France has always been ruled by and from Paris with the opinions of the rest of France mostly ignored. So these days, whatever Paris wants is opposed by most of the rest of France without even examining the logic. If the impulse is knee-jerk reactionary anti-Parisian sentiment, all that would be necessary to restore the balance might be to elect hard-right politicians in Paris again and let the Paris-hate do the rest. Then all the hicks would become Socialists again. Macron could hire me to advise.
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Post by fumobici on Jul 2, 2024 3:05:12 GMT
Rural, poorer, and less educated and cosmopolitan right-wing nut jobs and out-of-touch, educated, leftist, urban elitists. Sounds familiar.
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Post by bixaorellana on Jul 2, 2024 16:28:35 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 2, 2024 16:37:49 GMT
The cut off time for the second round of elections ended half an hour ago at 18:00. The Nouveau Front Populaire (Mélenchon & friends) did exactly what they said they would do -- withdraw every time they came in 3rd place. The Macron camp was much more wishy washy and the candidates often did not want to withdraw when the LFI (Mélenchon) was left but did not mind doing so for the Socialists, Communists and Ecologists. They just have a visceral hatred of Mélenchon and refuse to see the bigger picture. This is totally stupid.
We'll find out tomorrow how many of them obeyed in the end.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 3, 2024 19:51:52 GMT
Things are looking a bit better for the run-off election on Sunday. Enough candidates have withdrawn out of anti RN solidarity that the projected number of seats per party has changed considerably.
As you all know, 289 seats are required for a majority in the French National Assembly.
The current projections now show the RN (Bardella-Le Pen) with a total of 190-220 seats. The left wing New Popular Front could get 159-183. Renaissance (Macron) could get 110-135. The poor old Republicans (Sarkozy in olden times) are expected to get 30-50.
Now all we need are several hundred hammers to knock some sense into the non RN people when it comes time to negotiate a coalition.
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Post by bjd on Jul 4, 2024 14:17:52 GMT
I know you don't have a run-off where you are, Kerouac, but today we got the flyers for our run-off between the NF and the centrist. The centrist changed the text on his paper, thanking the leftist candidate for withdrawing, the far right just has a picture of Marine le Pen and Bardella, no picture of the candidate. She has been photoshopped so much that she looks about 30.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 4, 2024 16:02:31 GMT
I know. I feel left out without election material for the second round. I love sneering at that stuff.
Most of France is much less feverish today after learning of the latest opinion polls for the second round. Unfortunately, the French know nothing about coalition governments unlike countries like Belgium or Germany. A lot of the politicians are saying "No way will I accept to serve in a government with that other party!" but I think that many of them will change their tune after Sunday.
The French are so ignorant about coalitions that the most common term they are using is "ungovernable." You would think that they would at least understand that the "New Popular Front" which is composed to the Communists, Socialists, Greens and the LFI is already a coalition since they don't even like each other.
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Post by cheerypeabrain on Jul 7, 2024 17:21:21 GMT
Well we are waiting for the results of todays vote, pedictions should start to be made shortly.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 7, 2024 17:50:04 GMT
Ten more minutes as I write this. Of course that is just for the first estimates.
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Post by bjd on Jul 7, 2024 18:05:34 GMT
First estimates: 1) New popular front 2) centre 3) far right
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Post by cheerypeabrain on Jul 7, 2024 18:05:56 GMT
Looks like the alliance has worked altho it's too early to say...
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 7, 2024 18:09:46 GMT
There are car horns in the street right now.
Mélenchon is already declaring himself emperor, unfortunately.
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Post by bjd on Jul 7, 2024 18:11:56 GMT
I was about to say -- Mélenchon is talking as though they got a majority. He is trying to climb on the throne whereas nobody got a majority.
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Post by whatagain on Jul 7, 2024 18:23:59 GMT
I can’t see Meluche. Bastard. He is as excited as a fly on a pool of fresh dung and is forgetting himself already farting all over.
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Post by mickthecactus on Jul 7, 2024 18:41:30 GMT
Thanks for the intellectual input...,
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Post by bixaorellana on Jul 7, 2024 18:54:46 GMT
Mélenchon is already declaring himself emperor, unfortunately. Nothing like giving the people exactly what they feared. It's a shame he is lowering the tone of the enormously admirable and civic-minded movement by the French to block the far-right from taking over.
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Post by whatagain on Jul 7, 2024 19:19:46 GMT
Thanks for the intellectual input..., You welcome. If you allowed me to write in French I could be more diplomatic and you would not understand. But you get ballistic if I do.
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Post by fumobici on Jul 7, 2024 20:29:50 GMT
I think the French far-right, which came within a whisker of ruling France, makes even the craziest US Trumpers look moderate and sane by comparison. Literal Nazis. Well done to the left for briefly putting the good of the country above all their petty internecine squabbles.
Why does modern France crank out tens of millions of Nazis though is the question I'm left with.
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Post by mickthecactus on Jul 7, 2024 20:40:37 GMT
Thanks for the intellectual input..., You welcome. If you allowed me to write in French I could be more diplomatic and you would not understand. But you get ballistic if I do. Pull the other one. Your English is perfectly good enough to write sensibly but it’s not your style. As for writing in French it’s pretty pointless on an English speaking forum. Oui?
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Post by bixaorellana on Jul 7, 2024 22:11:47 GMT
I think the French far-right, which came within a whisker of ruling France, makes even the craziest US Trumpers look moderate and sane by comparison. Literal Nazis. Well done to the left for briefly putting the good of the country above all their petty internecine squabbles. Why does modern France crank out tens of millions of Nazis though is the question I'm left with. Well, we don't know -- yet -- what kind of horrors the US right-wingers have in store for us. And as far as France cranking out Nazis, this is a current disease of the developed west, it would appear. Look what the Netherlands did. The Netherlands, for christ's sakes! But you're right that it can't be said enough how admirable it was for all those very varied lefties to put the country first.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 8, 2024 3:27:43 GMT
Frankly, since I live immersed in French politics, I have found the RN in recent years to be farther left than the American Democratic party in terms of economics, culture and educational values. It is only on certain societal issues revolving around immigration that their racism pokes out but not nearly to the extent of their founder Jean-Marie Le Pen. On issues like abortion or same sex marriage, most of them accept it like the rest of the French. It is a different version of right wing politics than a lot of the world.
It is still despicable since a lot of the ideas are based on pure ignorance, and that is always dangerous. When people can't even explain why they think certain things I find it even more disturbing than the American right which comes up with the bible or the 2nd amendment by rote.
Anyway, the big question is whether the French will learn how to operate a coalition government since neither any party nor any side controls the National Assembly. Last night some of the dogmatic robots on the left were claiming that they would apply their programme and nothing but their programme and that there was no room for negotiation. Perhaps they will become more reasonable after sleeping on it.
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Post by kerouac2 on Jul 8, 2024 3:51:31 GMT
Here is a breakdown of the new National Assembly just in case anybody thought things will be simple now. The majority for voting a law is 289.
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Post by patricklondon on Jul 8, 2024 5:17:02 GMT
It's a bit reminiscent of the paralysis of the Fourth Republic: big blocs to right and left that couldn't be let into power for various reasons, and the only possible administration the same old centre in unstable coalitions. My blog | My photos | My video clips | My Librivox recordings"too literate to be spam"
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Post by bjd on Jul 8, 2024 5:17:23 GMT
It will be interesting to see whether the French will manage to make coalitions work. They work in lots of other countries so perhaps with a bit of practice...
I don't envy Macron's having to choose a prime minister but just as long as it's not Mélenchon.
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