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Post by kerouac2 on Aug 29, 2019 16:20:30 GMT
Dorian is now expected to be a category 4 if it hits Florida.
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Post by casimira on Aug 30, 2019 0:53:11 GMT
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST MODELS AND UPFATES BEFORE POSTING PROJECTIONS PLEASE!!!!!!! OR< DON"T POST AT ALL
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Post by bixaorellana on Aug 30, 2019 2:33:41 GMT
Huckle, I found out this afternoon that Dorian had amped up, so came on here to check on your status. Does your post mean that you are safely on your way to Paris? Hoping to hear glad tidings from you soon.
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Post by bixaorellana on Aug 30, 2019 2:55:24 GMT
You make it all sound like fun! The next thing you'll be doing is making a fort under the dining table.  Very smart to get the reservations squared away. The fact that you did it early on before there was a scramble may have contributed to how graciously the airline(s) responded. I do hope all of the preparation turns out to be for nothing. You could still play with the crank radio! Do keep us updated, if possible, please. And thank you! |
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Post by kerouac2 on Sept 2, 2019 15:58:41 GMT
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Post by bixaorellana on Sept 2, 2019 17:23:20 GMT
Good to hear from you, Huckle ~ stay safe!
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Post by Kimby on Sept 2, 2019 19:37:03 GMT
Good reporting here, with graphics.
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Post by Kimby on Sept 2, 2019 19:41:03 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Sept 5, 2019 13:40:31 GMT
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Post by Kimby on Sept 5, 2019 15:23:36 GMT
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Post by Kimby on Sept 5, 2019 15:33:35 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Sept 8, 2019 14:53:13 GMT
Dorian had a long and catastrophic run, enough so that the name has been retired from future hurricane naming lists. However, both Dorian and tropical storm Gabrielle should be visiting the British Isles in a few days. This might help to take their minds off Brexit.
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Post by Kimby on Sept 10, 2019 14:16:42 GMT
When Charley struck SW Florida on August 13, 2004, it was the first major hurricane to make landfall there since Donna in 1960 (on today’s date, coincidentally).
In 2017 - also on September 10th - Irma wreaked havoc, and recent hurricane seasons have had Floridians on the edge of their seats.
Climate change is real and it’s happening now. Al Gore was not crazy.
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Post by kerouac2 on Sept 29, 2019 8:29:26 GMT
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Post by kerouac2 on Oct 18, 2019 19:00:19 GMT
Nestor is the traditional name of a butler in French speaking countries. Captain Haddock's butler in the Tintin books was called Nestor. |
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Post by questa on Oct 20, 2019 2:05:00 GMT
The Oz bureau of meteorology has recently published its Cyclone projections. Noting the recent cyclones that reduced much of the Bahamas to match sticks, they were concerned that the eye stayed in place for 2 days, thus causing maximum damage, rather than sweeping across the land and losing power.
Also they have shown that the cyclone season is starting earlier and ending later. Usually the cyclones only hit the Northern Tropical regions, but the "Super Storm Cells" along the East coast are striking further south and it is only a matter of time before the major cities get hit. They even have projections of Tasmania becoming involved, due to the effects of Global Warming and the already higher ocean temperatures.
Much of Oz fruits and vegetables are grown in the North. After Cyclone "Larry" destroyed the harvest and infrastructure, these products were hard to get for years, and very expensive. Bananas went from 95 cents a kilo to $16 a kilo. I wonder if any government department has projections about the nation-wide cost to the country or just the immediate victims.
NB. What we call cyclones, Northern Hemisphere call hurricanes. Asia often uses typhoons.
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Post by kerouac2 on Oct 20, 2019 4:10:59 GMT
In France all three names are used, respecting the geographical zones, probably because there are tiny bits and pieces of the country in all three zones.
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Post by casimira on May 9, 2020 14:23:10 GMT
Although predictions for the upcoming hurricane season are not officially announced until May 21st there have been early predictions already being announced.
Due to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, the predictions are rather ominous.
At present, they are predicting 8 hurricanes and 12 named storms.
Much higher than past years.
We here on the Gulf Coast don't usually get too nervous until August and September as the Gulf waters heat up
and we have much more activity at that time.
Reading this made me anxious as the scenario in my head envisions a cluster f**k should a major storm let alone a hurricane add to the bedlam we are currently experiencing with a pandemic going on and no end in sight.
Talk about "the perfect storm"...
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Post by Kimby on May 9, 2020 17:31:29 GMT
Your post made me rush over to the Stormcast Tropical Weather Forum to see what they’re talking about.
This article is already close to 3 weeks old, but has more detail:
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – The Atlantic basin could see up to 22 named storms this upcoming hurricane season, according to researchers at North Carolina State University.
According to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, this hurricane season will see 18 to 22 named storms, which is above both long- and short-term averages.
The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
According to researchers, the long-term (1951 to 2019) average of named storms is 11, and the short-term (1995 to 2019) average is 14.
Of this season’s named storms, eight to 11 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of three to five storms becoming major hurricanes, according to N.C. State researchers.
Xie said the Gulf of Mexico could see an extremely active hurricane season with “the likelihood of six to 10 named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming major hurricanes.”
According to researchers, historic averages for the Gulf are just three named storms and one hurricane.
“Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin,” the release from the university said.
Xia Sun, graduate research assistant in marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, also contributed to the research.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
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Post by casimira on May 10, 2020 12:05:12 GMT
Gee, that was a cheery read...
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Post by kerouac2 on May 10, 2020 17:59:30 GMT
I read the predictions every year, but they never seem to correspond to what happens. Unfortunately, for all of the times that the predictions are pessimistic and not much happens, there are other times when the hurricane agenda is worse than expected.
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Post by casimira on May 14, 2020 2:04:57 GMT
I have to agree with what you said however, I am already beginning to obsess on this.
I don't want for my mind to go "there".
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Post by Kimby on May 14, 2020 9:44:56 GMT
We are in better shape for hurricane season this year as we have finally replaced our aging roof shingles. In the 25+ years since this roof was installed, the building codes have been strengthened a lot. Our roofers used a lot more nails to attach the roof sheathing (plywood) tighter to the framing members, put a waterproof membrane over the entire roof (instead of just at the edges) and put down new “lifetime” shingles (warranted to 130 mph) with more nails per shingle.
That’s all well and good, but a single broken window could cause the roof to lift off the house anyway.
We need to replace the screening on the lanai, but won’t do that right before hurricane season. Maybe next time. By November we should know just how bad hurricane season actually was.
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Post by kerouac2 on May 14, 2020 10:35:01 GMT
I looked at the NHC site for the first time in a couple of weeks today, and I see that there is a little yellow X entering the Gulf between Cuba and Florida. Not at all threatening for the time being.
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Post by Kimby on May 14, 2020 10:38:18 GMT
Yes, it made the Ft. Myers TV weather reports yesterday.
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Post by casimira on May 15, 2020 14:13:35 GMT
There is a tropical storm system brewing that is predicted to turn into Tropical Storm 'Arthur'. Tropical winds may occur in SE Florida as early as later this p.m.
Jeezums, it's only the middle of May!! The season for this officially doesn't begin until June 1st.
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Post by kerouac2 on May 15, 2020 14:59:34 GMT
That was a quick development compared to yesterday when it was at 10%.
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Post by Kimby on May 15, 2020 15:08:53 GMT
From the StormCast Forum:
“The NHC has the percentages at 70/80%. Also they have scheduled a recon flight for tomorrow if necessary.
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.
A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the
western Atlantic early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.”
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Post by casimira on May 15, 2020 19:46:00 GMT
It's when they give them a name, that's when my antenna goes up.
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Post by kerouac2 on May 15, 2020 19:52:35 GMT
Looks to me like it will get a name tomorrow.
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