The Oz bureau of meteorology has recently published its Cyclone projections. Noting the recent cyclones that reduced much of the Bahamas to match sticks, they were concerned that the eye stayed in place for 2 days, thus causing maximum damage, rather than sweeping across the land and losing power.
Also they have shown that the cyclone season is starting earlier and ending later. Usually the cyclones only hit the Northern Tropical regions, but the "Super Storm Cells" along the East coast are striking further south and it is only a matter of time before the major cities get hit. They even have projections of Tasmania becoming involved, due to the effects of Global Warming and the already higher ocean temperatures.
Much of Oz fruits and vegetables are grown in the North. After Cyclone "Larry" destroyed the harvest and infrastructure, these products were hard to get for years, and very expensive. Bananas went from 95 cents a kilo to $16 a kilo. I wonder if any government department has projections about the nation-wide cost to the country or just the immediate victims.
NB. What we call cyclones, Northern Hemisphere call hurricanes. Asia often uses typhoons.
Travel! Set out and head for pastures new[br] Life tastes the richer when you’ve road worn feet.[br]Ibn Battuta[br]
Although predictions for the upcoming hurricane season are not officially announced until May 21st there have been early predictions already being announced.
Due to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, the predictions are rather ominous.
At present, they are predicting 8 hurricanes and 12 named storms.
Much higher than past years.
We here on the Gulf Coast don't usually get too nervous until August and September as the Gulf waters heat up and we have much more activity at that time.
Reading this made me anxious as the scenario in my head envisions a cluster f**k should a major storm let alone a hurricane add to the bedlam we are currently experiencing with a pandemic going on and no end in sight.
Your post made me rush over to the Stormcast Tropical Weather Forum to see what they’re talking about.
This article is already close to 3 weeks old, but has more detail:
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – The Atlantic basin could see up to 22 named storms this upcoming hurricane season, according to researchers at North Carolina State University.
According to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, this hurricane season will see 18 to 22 named storms, which is above both long- and short-term averages.
The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
According to researchers, the long-term (1951 to 2019) average of named storms is 11, and the short-term (1995 to 2019) average is 14.
Of this season’s named storms, eight to 11 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of three to five storms becoming major hurricanes, according to N.C. State researchers.
Xie said the Gulf of Mexico could see an extremely active hurricane season with “the likelihood of six to 10 named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming major hurricanes.”
According to researchers, historic averages for the Gulf are just three named storms and one hurricane.
“Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin,” the release from the university said.
Xia Sun, graduate research assistant in marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, also contributed to the research.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
I read the predictions every year, but they never seem to correspond to what happens. Unfortunately, for all of the times that the predictions are pessimistic and not much happens, there are other times when the hurricane agenda is worse than expected.
We are in better shape for hurricane season this year as we have finally replaced our aging roof shingles. In the 25+ years since this roof was installed, the building codes have been strengthened a lot. Our roofers used a lot more nails to attach the roof sheathing (plywood) tighter to the framing members, put a waterproof membrane over the entire roof (instead of just at the edges) and put down new “lifetime” shingles (warranted to 130 mph) with more nails per shingle.
That’s all well and good, but a single broken window could cause the roof to lift off the house anyway.
We need to replace the screening on the lanai, but won’t do that right before hurricane season. Maybe next time. By November we should know just how bad hurricane season actually was.
From the StormCast Forum: “The NHC has the percentages at 70/80%. Also they have scheduled a recon flight for tomorrow if necessary.
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.
A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.”
Some people did have to be rescued that were caught in a rip tide while foolishly out swimming in the ocean. Were it not for the sound of their screams that some kind soul heard they would have been swept out and drowned to death.
A warning just came onto my screen from the Sun-Sentinel (Fort Lauderdale) saying that storm Arthur is now turning south and is expected to lash the Florida coast with high waves. I can't see an indication of Florida involvement in the current nhc.noaa charts